Last week’s SNF props went 1-2 during the Dolphins’ victory on the road against the Patriots. Tyreek Hill saw nine targets but only brought in five for 40 yards to never scare his yardage total, while Rhamondre Stevenson carried 15 times but fell a couple yards short of converting his rushing yard over.
In our best bet article, we mentioned how unexpected circumstances can produce volatile betting results but that those tend to net out over a season. New England’s clever block of Jason Sanders’ second attempt in the third quarter helped us cash the under on his field goal total last Sunday, in addition to a missed 55-yarder later in the fourth.
This Sunday night focuses on two historic franchises that will meet for the 26th time in the regular season. The Raiders lead the all-time rivalry against the Steelers 17-14, including playoff meetings, and have won two of three games since 2018 and six of the last nine in the series. The overall point differential across their 25 regular season meetings is a razor-thin margin of one in favor of Pittsburgh.
In their 2022 matchup on Christmas Eve, the Steelers prevailed 13-10 on a last-minute touchdown pass from Kenny Pickett to George Pickens in the team’s only non-kicking points. Pittsburgh out-gained Las Vegas 350 yards to 201 and intercepted three Derek Carr passes to keep the score close.
This season, the Raiders are favored by 2.5 points at home, with a point total of 43 being offered to bettors. We’ll play several props in this latest matchup of storied franchises; read ahead for more information.
Najee Harris UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Harris was a prized talent in the 2021 NFL Draft, going 24th overall to the Steelers as a dual threat back who could also throw some blocks. He burst onto the NFL scene with over 375 touches as a rookie, gaining more than 1,650 total yards and scoring 10 touchdowns on his way to being named a Pro Bowler. Unfortunately, things could not seem more different for him in 2023.
Harris has barely been utilized in the Steeler offense through two weeks. As a team, only the Minnesota Vikings have attempted fewer rushes than Pittsburgh. Combined with the team’s inability to throw the ball, where the Steelers are 27th in yards per pass attempt this season, it’s a challenging situation to be in for Harris.
The lack of passing game effectiveness allows teams to drop more players into the box to stop Harris and fellow back Jaylen Warren. If the Raiders can do that, they’ll outperform their current rush defense rank of 26th.
Jimmy Garappolo OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The Steeler defense ranks in the middle of the pack in passing defense this season but has looked helpless against the run. Pittsburgh is dead last in rushing D, allowing 5.6 yards per carry and 193 yards per game in 2023.
That would generally be welcome news for an opposing offense playing on their home field except for one problem: the Raiders are 31st in rushing average this season and have been similar to Pittsburgh in their inability to move the ball on the ground.
For Garoppolo, there is one more concern about advancing the ball against this team. The Steelers are tied for 3rd in the NFL in sacks through two games and are generating pressure on an astounding 39.8% of QB drop backs. This leads into our next handicap, but we expect more drives to stall out than finish in the end zone for LV on Sunday night.
Daniel Carlson OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Speaking of drives stalling in enemy territory, enter Daniel Carlson. No player has attempted more field goals since 2020 than the reliable Raiders’ kicker, who has also connected on 93.2% of those tries.
To put that in perspective, that’s the highest conversion rate for any player who’s kicked 50 or more field goal tries in that time, and Carlson has attempted 117. We like him to sail at least two more through the uprights on Sunday and will back the two-time All-Pro at the betting window.
