Here in Week 12, we have a handful of marquee matchups mixed in with some absolute dumpster fire games with totals in the low 30s. Coming off of an interesting Thanksgiving slate, we’ll look to find some value on the board.
Big Teaser Week?
It’s a Wong teaser bettors dream on Sunday as SIX teams are eligible for a “Wong Teaser” not counting the Lions on Thursday and potentially the 49ers if that number pushes past seven. I think there will be a lot of liability on the Chiefs covering -2.5 (teasing down -8.5 at DK) as well as on Houston +8 (teasing up for +2) against Jacksonville.
I wouldn’t highlight any leg as one that I’m avoiding but would recommend my favorite teaser spot of the week as Chiefs -2.5 / Buccaneers +8.5. This section is serving more as a reminder that in order to meet the qualification of a “Wong” teaser leg, you should only be betting games through both 3 and 7.
Never tease totals and never tease through zero. The most popular (and profitable) teaser is a two team, six-point teaser when you are getting a price of -120 or better. For a three-team teaser you should be looking for +150 or better.
Buccaneers @ Colts
The Buccaneers come into Indianapolis on their second straight road game after falling 27-14 against one of the league’s top units in San Francisco. While a 13-point loss doesn’t stand out as a good sign, there were some positive takeaways for the Bucs who managed a success rate above 50% on offensive plays against a top ten defense in SF.
Despite holding the Patriots to just 6 points in Germany in Week 10, I don’t think the Colts secondary is any good. The Colts will be well rested coming off the bye and I’m supportive of the market move to bring this line from PK to -2/-2.5.
Best Bet: Bucs / Colts OVER 43.5
I think the Colts are the right side here but don’t see any value in laying the points. Instead, I think we can look at the total in this one with some shops still posting 43.5 -115.
The Buccaneers offense has struggled to run the ball all season and will probably continue to against the Colts. However, I think the passing offense will have a much better performance than they did against SF, facing a much softer Indy secondary. Further, the Bucs look like they could be without both starting CBs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis in this one, plus LB Lavonte David.
Even if these guys are a go, they’ll be banged up, which should give Indianapolis ample opportunity to move the ball. A game state where Indy is able to pass all over Tampa Bay should, in turn, lead to the Buccaneers forcing the ball through the air, which has been far more effective this season.
Both Gardner Minshew and Baker Mayfield have a propensity for turnovers, which could also lead to positive field position for the offenses. I like the over 43.5 at -115 for a 1% play here.
Bills @ Eagles
Here we have perhaps the best game on the slate as the 6-5 Bills are fighting for a playoff spot against the 8-1 Eagles looking to hold onto the #1 seed in the NFC. I think the Eagles snuck away with a victory in Kansas City, not only because of MVS’ horrific drop. The Eagles have been overrated by the market the entire season on defense and I think the Bills can take advantage of that.
Now, thinking about Buffalo, you’ve seen very different versions of this offense. We know the Bills fired OC Ken Dorsey despite Josh Allen sitting amongst the top of the league in terms of EPA/play. The contrasting style of play has continued to be an issue for the 2023 Bills.
Josh Allen and company have gone into droughts and committed turnovers offensively when they’ve been forced to slow down and play 12 personnel under Sean McDermott’s guidance. When Allen is able to play up tempo in a single tight end set (Ken Dorsey’s system) he’s looked much more comfortable, and the offense has performed to a higher level.
Now, to be fair, we understand why McDermott prefers the slower game flow. This Bills defense is not good and it’s simply because of injury. They have basically all their top contributors on IR and looking at this week's injury report we continue to see issues in the secondary as both Taron Johson and Micah Hyde are banged up.
This is where I see the matchup against the Eagles playing a big role. The Bills aren’t able to stop anybody in the ground game and the Eagles will be more than happy to let De’Andre Swift have a huge game on the ground. AJ Brown was shut down by the Chiefs in their Week 11 matchup on Monday Night Football and I’d expect the Eagles to scheme up opportunities for him to get right.
Best Bet: Bills / Eagles OVER 48.5
The Eagles should come out firing in this game and I think that will lead to points, early. In return, the Bills should be forced to abandon the slow pace of play McDermott employs and instead let Josh Allen and company run free.
Josh always has the potential to play himself out of a game with turnovers, but I think the game state will allow for a very high scoring game. I’ve already bet this at 47.5 but I’d still recommend the over at the 48s and 48.5’s that are available in the market. We’ll track over 48.5 as our play for 1%.
