Week 11 brings us quite a difficult slate with multiple important divisional matchups and a steadily declining amount of starting caliber quarterbacks healthy and available to play in games. We’ll look to extract value from the slate and get a little creative with our wagers.
Let’s get this one out of the way early, as it’s only available at 2 markets currently (DraftKings and Pointsbet). The Tommy DeVito led Giants head into Washington as consensus +9.5-point dogs, down from the opener around 10. For some reason the Giants have taken some money and pushed the line down to +8.5 at the aforementioned books.
While I do understand the trepidation with laying such a big number with Washington, I cannot imagine how anyone is putting money behind New York in its current form. We’re lucky to see two -8.5’s up in the market and you should be running to the counter to get this as the first leg of our 6-point teaser.
The second leg we’ll use is the Detroit Lions, in a game with similar market movement. The Bears will get QB Justin Fields back, which is an immediate upgrade over Tyson Bagent, despite the latter looking passable at times under center. This Lions defense is vastly overrated in my opinion and has benefited greatly from beating up on bad teams.
I’m not suggesting that Fields and the Bears will force the Lions into another shootout like they had Week 10 against the Chargers, but I do agree with the market move off of 10. Baking in both the Fields news and market support for Chicago, I think +7.5 is the low point and see it as the right time to buy Detroit for teasers. I would only back the Lions against the spread in this one if the line somehow got under 7.
The (5-5) Raiders come into Miami riding a two-game win streak after hosting both New York teams in back-to-back weeks. Miami is coming off their bye after losing to the Chiefs Week 9 in Germany. Here is where the Anthony Pierce experience comes to an end.
While it must have felt nice to be a part of the Raiders locker room after the firing of Josh McDaniels, giving the team a much-needed morale boost and culture change. That being said, the cigars in the locker room will be coming to an end against the Miami Dolphins. This Raider defense is bad, very bad.
They rank 29th in defensive DVOA, and still field only one defensive player who makes a positive impact (Maxx Crosby). The Raiders have allowed 6 and then 12 points in their past two games against the 32nd and 30th ranked teams in terms of offensive DVOA. They do not get any credit in my book for stopping the likes of Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson.
Looking at the other side, this Miami defense is slowly rounding into form. Despite the loss, they mostly held the Chiefs offense in check and are steadily climbing the rankings as a defense. Importantly, they are getting healthier on defense.
Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio looks like he’s finally putting all the pieces together and I think they are due for a strong defensive performance coming off the bye against the likes of Aidan O’Connell and company. We’re looking at a blowout in Miami. I think they’ll continue to score despite the potential to amass a big first half lead, given how great their rushing attack is and how poor the Raiders defense is.
The main play in this one will be Miami -12.5 for 1.5%, however, I would get some exposure to alternate lines here, -17.5 and -20.5. I would also bet Miami’s team total over at the current number. Don’t overextend yourself but I will likely have about a 3% bankroll exposure to different Miami positions in this one.