Quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are due to take that elite leap this coming season, so why not bank on them now? Underdog has a few season-long props to get your hands on before it’s too late, as it is time to bank on Herbert’s long-ball upside, Lawrence’s emergence as the next elite AFC QB, and Jalen Hurts’ improvement as a thrower in the potent Eagles offense.
As the NFL season approaches, it's time to get those prop bets rolling and capitalize on the potential of these talented quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts OVER 23.5 PASS TD
This Hurts over 23.5 bet is mostly due to the regression we should see in the rushing game along with some added options in the passing attack. After having a minor ankle procedure this offseason, it’s expected that the NFC Champion QB will be 100% by the start of the season.
However, the Eagles $255 million investment into Hurts and the arrivals of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny have shown that they want to take precautions and not develop a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray situation with their mobile signal-caller.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Jalen’s 2.9 red zone carries per game led all QBs in the NFL. With the electric D’Andre Swift and potential 6.0 YPC halfback as his running-mate in Rashaad Penny, the case can be made that to conserve the amount of hits their most expensive player takes, Nick Sirianni and co. will either go to Devonta Smith or A.J. Brown in the air or hand it off to Swift or Penny on more 1st and 2nd downs.
Similar to Josh Allen and other mobile Quarterbacks early on in their careers, passing production elevates in the red zone when defenses respect the rushing ability.
With Jalen Hurts absolutely terrorizing defenses last season with his legs, expect the MVP-caliber Eagle to dominate through the air with the help of the core-four: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and D’Andre Swift.
Justin Herbert OVER 30.5 PASS TD
This offseason, the Chargers were sure to keep the long-time playmakers in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler around Herbert for the time being. However, not many of us expected L.A. to draft TCU WR Quentin Johnston at the back-end of the 1st round.
A 6’'4 wideout with speed and solid change of direction, Justin will now have four above-average WRs and what many believe is the best halfback-catching player by his side.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will make sure that his squad doesn’t finish 11th in deep ball attempts this season. Stuck with Dak Prescott for the past few seasons, Herbert brings a totally different playstyle and capabilities to his offense, which should feature 3 to 4 WRs at any given time.
With the longtime red zone threats of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, the Chargers will also display sets with Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston who have very distinct playstyles compared to the earlier set of playmakers. With over 41 pass attempts per game in 2022, a 30+ TD season that replicates his 2020 or 2021 campaign should be in the works.
Expect for Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer to make an impact in the deep-receiving game, where Herbert should easily eclipse that 31 TD mark through the air with his elite completion percentage under pressure.
Justin Fields OVER 6.5 RUSH TD
I simply have more faith in the Bears running attack than their passing attack led by Fields. Similar to the Atlanta Falcons of 2022, the only chance this Chicago squad has at winning games or the weak NFC North, is by running the ball down the opponent's throats.
In his first full season, Fields solidified the label of a "non-pass-attack" on the Chicago team, ranking last in pass plays per game, second in carries per game, and third in red zone carries per game in 2022.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Despite reports indicating that Fields has become a smarter decision maker this season, his unmatched ability to scramble into the end zone in the red zone remains his “upside”. The addition of a WR1 in D.J. Moore shouldn’t change the type of play calling in Chicago as the split stats didn’t lie last season.
Fields' completion rate of just 53% in wins contrasts with a higher rate of 62% in Bear losses, where his rushing stats significantly surged. Additionally, during the winter months, Fields is poised to once again dominate the backfield especially with the absence of David Montgomery.
Between one of the worst protection rates in the league and the quick decision making he’s due to display in just his 2nd full season in the league, expect more than 7 rush TDs this season that nears the double-digit mark, mostly due to the elite scrambling skills displayed last season.
QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 3975.5 PASS YDS
The Jaguars are clicking on all cylinders under Doug Pederson. The former Super Bowl winning Head Coach has a 23-year-old superstar Quarterback and solid receiving core while playing in the easiest division in football.
Lawrence’s 4,113 passing yards earned him Pro Bowl honors although finishing 9-8 on the season, before mounting a 24-3 comeback in the 2nd half to defeat the Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Looking forward to the 2023/24 season, Trevor has Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram as his top four targets.
This core four is due for a huge season, especially while playing the Texans, Titans, and Colts six times during the season. With former college mate Travis Etienne out of the backfield alongside rookie Tank Bigsby out of Auburn, this offense is a top tier AFC offense.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
2022 was a tale of two seasons for T-Law
- GAMES 1-8: 2-6 REC | 230 YPG | 62.5% CP
- GAMES 9-17: 7-2 | 252.5 YPG | 69.7% CP
This value on Underdog is one that you may not find anywhere else this offseason. While his 26.5 Pass TD marker is also a fine bet, the Jags should be moving the ball down the field with ease in their divisional games and shootouts alike.
With the Quarterback adjusted to Pederson’s offense and an extremely promising schedule to start the 2023 season, the numbers are lined up for the superstar to have an even bigger season through the air. Needing an average of 245.6 passing yards in 17 outings, give me the OVER for Lawrence as the Jags will be a positive bet all season long.
Anthony Richardson UNDER 16.0 PASS TD
Sorry to ruin the holiday mood, but Anthony Richardson is simply not an NFL-caliber passing QB yet. While his rushing ability and potential is through-the-roof, the Colts don’t have the playmakers or implemented coaching staff to help Richardson succeed down the field in 2023.
In more complete offenses over the past few seasons, rookie QBs have struggled to even reach that double-digit mark in passing TDs, so it is difficult to see the new A.R. of the NFL to hit that mark.
WHY TAKE THE UNDER?
If Anthony would hit the over, he’d have to throw for virtually the same number of TDs in his final season at Florida. It’s difficult for Quarterbacks to develop into above-average decision makers at the next level, but for players who didn’t even throw for over 20+ TDs, it might be impossible.
In his Louisville career, Lamar Jackson threw for 27 TDs twice. Kyler Murray threw for 42 TDs in his final season at Oklahoma. Even the most run-heavy QB we’ve seen in Justin Fields, threw for 41 TDs in a season as a Buckeye.
Ultimately, due to the lack of passing presence and confidence, the 16 TD mark is a huge red flag for me and I’d hammer the under.
