While other positional players’ odds might present tougher decisions, Underdog’s Pick’em displays some outstanding wide receiver values.
Betting the “lower” is no fun, so we present seven “higher” Pick’em bets for the wideout spot.
Between Adam Thielen and Christian Kirk’s TD totals to Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith’s yardage numbers, bet on opportunity and upside this off-season.
Amari Cooper OVER 875.5 YDS
Coop amassed an impressive 1,160-yard, 9 TD campaign without starting QB Deshaun Watson for a chunk of the year.
The Browns' decision to not acquire any significant primary playmakers for the upcoming season suggests that the former Cowboy, who finished 16th in targets among wide receivers last year, is likely to have a comparable performance in 2023.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Four of the last five seasons have resulted in 1,000 receiving yards or more for Amari Cooper, who now has Deshaun Watson’s trust. With targets available due to Kareem Hunt’s departure and the positive game script the Browns should find themselves in more often than not, a top fifteen season isn’t out of the question for Amari, who seems to be a pro’s pro.
Ranking 12th in deep targets in 2022, expect Cooper to have a handful of 100-yard games to bring him over the edge of the 875-yard mark.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 1,045.5 YDS
If you’ve been following our Underdog Best Ball and season long props articles, you’ll understand our love for the Miami Dolphins outside playmakers.
Eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark in each of his first two seasons with Tua and Miami, Jaylen Waddle’s third season should prove to be his best.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Waddle’s top rank of yards per target and yards per reception in his 2nd season with the Dolphins was enough to firmly establish his place alongside Jefferson and Chase as the top young wideouts in the NFL.
Waddle’s ability to make Tua a better Quarterback when he throws his way (120.5 QBR when doing so) allows for Mike McDaniel to continuously run the offense through Jaylen, especially with added attention on the outside to Tyreek Hill.
DeVonta Smith OVER 1,000.5 YDS
The end of 2022 was extremely promising for the former Heisman winner, surpassing 8 targets in ten of his last eleven matchups.
This fantastic end to the season cultivated in a 7 reception, 100 yard Super Bowl performance to solidify his spot as a top fantasy football option at WR.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Jalen Hurts’ continued development is predicated on decision making in the air. While A.J. Brown is more of a vertical runner that occasionally goes deep after catching a 1-on-one slant route, DeVonta Smith is a more consistent route runner that should be more available for Hurts to throw to on 3rd downs and in scrambling situations.
With constant availability and playmaking attributes that only the top tier players at this position display, DeVonta Smith’s yard total is one of my favorite off-season bets to pounce on.
Christian Kirk OVER 800.5 YDS
Similar to Waddle and the Dolphins, Christian Kirk and the Jaguars offense is due for an explosive 2023.
After finishing his first season with the team with career-high numbers in targets, receptions, and touchdowns, there is solid optimism for another exceptional campaign from the talented wideout.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
This Jaguars team is due for an electric offensive season. After an improbable playoff victory against the Chargers, Doug Pederson and Lawrence have put their squad on the map with Christian Kirk handling the WR1 duties.
Although Calvin Ridley will take a chunk of targets, I’m not afraid of a player who hasn’t played in two seasons to decimate Kirk into a lesser role.
The former Cardinal has seemingly rejuvenated his value in Jacksonville and due to his combination of speed, availability, and elite route mastery in a new system, Kirk’s yard prop is a “must bet” this summer.
Justin Jefferson OVER 8.5 REC TD
The future Hall of Famer is looking to build on his first three seasons of absolute dominance at the professional level.
While he only scored more than 8 TDs in his 2021 season, the red zone assassin Adam Thielen is in Carolina and his 22 red zone targets are up for grabs.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
This off-season, never bet against talent. With 16 receptions on 28 red zone targets in 2022, I expect these numbers to eclipse the 20 REC/30 TAR benchmark due to Thielen and Davlin Cook’s absence.
With Kirk Cousins and the Vikings timeline of winning at an all-time high due to the lack of star power and star teams in the NFC, expect Jefferson to get added red zone looks especially later in the season as he approaches milestones and a hopeful NFC North Championship.
Adam Thielen OVER 4.5 REC TD
The red zone assassin and veteran asset has already developed an off-season connection with top overall selection Bryce Young. Theilen has ranked 5th in receiving TDs since 2020 with 30.
That playmaking ability at the later stages of drives doesn’t disappear overnight or in this case, Carolina.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Veteran pass catchers are rookie QBs best friends’. Without an impressive pass catching group for Young to throw to in his first season with the Panthers, expect Thielen to be his favorite option early on.
With the Falcons, Saints, and Seahawks on tap for the first three weeks of the season, I predict Adam Thielen to score a few red zone TDs out of the slot, allowing Bryce to get comfortable in an NFL scheme with added defensive speed he isn’t used to.
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 4.5 REC TD
There’s a little confusion on my part here. Has Brandon Aiyuk not scored five or more TDs in every season as a 49er?
This might be the easiest bet on Underdog Sports in the month of July as Brandon Aiyuk isn’t only due for a breakout year, but due for a breakout contract.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
One of my favorite Aiyuk improvements from 2021 into 2022 was his target separation percentage. Finishing at 84th in 2021, he proved doubters wrong last season finishing 3rd in that statistic, allowing for a career high in targets, yards, and TDs.
With Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, the front office, and most notably Kyle Shanahan deploying their trust in the 4th year WR, expect another successful season where Aiyuk finds the end zone more than a dozen times.
