As the most volatile position in DFS and the NFL alike, running back props are always tough to go through with. Amidst the middle of this off-season, several Underdog props present excellent value opportunities worth considering.
The newly acquired Miles Sanders and David Montgomery's touchdown upside and the consistently reliable Austin Ekeler's receiving ability prove to be some outstanding plays.
With these options among others, there's ample opportunity to find value and make informed decisions in the revolving running back market.
David Montgomery OVER 6.5 RUSH TD
Finishing with over 800 yards and 5 rushing TDs or more in his four seasons as a Chicago Bear, David Montgomery joins his division rival in what should become a healthy rejuvenation to the running back room.
Watching Monty’s film from 2022, the jump cuts, pass catching, and change of speed are three aspects that jump out to you. Adding his consistency to the Lions backfield that has lacked the firepower outside of the seldom-available D’Andre Swift will be a huge gain.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
With most of the contributions from Swift and Jamaal Williams, the Lions committee combined for 23 rushing TDs last season (3rd in NFL). Subtracting that duo from the Motor City, Dan Campbell and the front office have decided to run with rookie RB Jahmyrr Gibbs and newly acquired David Montgomery for the 2023 campaign.
Without big-name playmakers on the outside other than Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rumors that Gibbs will have more of a receiving role to begin the season, expect Montgomery’s combination of speed and strength to lift him past the double digit touchdown mark in this high-powered offense.
Nick Chubb OVER 0.5 REC TD
This is simply one of those bets you have to take without questioning the past history. Looking at the Browns offensive weapons, it seems extremely insignificant after the trio of Amari Cooper, Deshaun Watson, and Nick Chubb is mentioned.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Kareem Hunt’s 8.7% target share and 29 red zone touches will not disappear. Although the Browns have Jerome Ford emerging in the backfield, Nick Chubb has the ability to go for over 25 touches per game this season.
Due to the lack of star power on this roster and the trust Watson and the Browns staff convey in Chubb, a dump down pass for a TD is a smart bet as there are limited options in the red zone. Browns RBs have combined for eight receiving TDs in the past three seasons.
Miles Sanders OVER 0.5 REC TD
Miles Sanders hasn’t posted a receiving touchdown since his three during the 2019 season. 17 TDs on the ground later, we are betting on Miles to finally get one through the air in Carolina.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Rookie quarterbacks rely on check-down options and safety nets in the red zone, and Bryce Young perfectly exemplifies this characteristic. Tossing 6 TDs to the RB room in both of his starting seasons at Alabama, I expect more of the same as the Heisman winner makes his transition to the pros.
When Miles Sanders was signing his Panther contract, there was talk about getting involved in the receiving game more. This is an avenue he wanted to differentiate himself with and was unable to due to the emergence of Jalen’s legs in Philadelphia. With one of the smartest, risk averse QBs by his side, Sanders will break the drought in Carolina.
Austin Ekeler OVER 575.5 REC YDS
Easily eclipsing this mark the past two seasons, there’s room to be concerned over Ekeler’s TD regression and carries this season.
However, even with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore taking his talents to Los Angeles, Ekeler’s value as a receiving back is greater than ever.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Catching over 100 footballs last season with the Chargers, Austin Ekeler solidified himself as one of the best 3-down backs in today’s game. Even with over 100 catches, the quality of them were poor at times.
With a new run-it-and-gun-it type of offense we should see with Moore at the helm, expect larger chunks of plays from Austin Ekeler, resulting in some 60-80 receiving yard games that will be a small step on the ladder to get him past the 575.5 mark.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 5 RUSH TD
With five rushing TDs in his first two seasons as a Patriot, Rhamondre finds himself as the lead back to start the season for the first time in his career.
Although an above-average pass catcher in space, Rhamondre is due to crank the numbers up as a red zone runner this season.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Stevenson seemed to do most of his damage in the red zone earlier in the season, scoring 5 of his 6 TDs before Week 8.
As it gets frigid and the winter coats start to bloom in Foxborough, expect the unstoppable goal line force of Rhamondre to score in chunks due to Mac Jones and the Patriots’ inability to move the ball into the end zone through the air at times.
Damien Harris ran for 15 touchdowns in 2021 (T2) as the Patriots starter. The Pats should be willing to feed their star halfback at the goal line, resulting in a possible double-digit-TD season from the Oklahoma Sooner.
Jeff Wilson UNDER 550.5 RUSH YDS
The Miami Dolphins have a stacked roster. Between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle moving like pinballs around the field, to rookie Devon Achane due to get some run, it’s difficult to see how Wilson can put up a similar campaign to 2022’s.
WHY TAKE THE UNDER?
Wilson’s 176 carries and elite availability is something I’m willing to bet against. The former 49ers running back had spurts of his season cut short in every single year outside of 2022.
With Mike McDaniel most likely deploying a full committee on Week 1, it will be difficult for Wilson to earn those 150+ carries again this season, especially due to the firepower that Mostert, Achane, and Gaskin could present for a week or two at a time.
Dalvin Cook’s placement is something to monitor as well. If Dalvin ends up in Miami, this price tag on Wilson’s under will look like a robbery.
Brian Robinson UNDER 6.5 RUSH TD
Although new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy will provide a huge boost to Washington playmakers in DFS and season-long fantasy football, I believe Antonio Gibson will be the one to control this RB room in 2023.
WHY TAKE THE UNDER?
Gibson and Robinson should prove to be a solid one-two punch in the NFC. However, Bienemy loves to shake this up in the red zone with receiver movement or empty sets.
While Gibson and Robinson should have a handful of red zone carries, there will be a shortage of tailored plays for Brian compared to Gibson, Samuel, Dotson, and Terry McLaurin.
Given Robinson's lack of breakaway speed and the highly competitive playmaking environment in Washington, it is wise to consider betting on the under for Robinson's touchdown total.
