On Monday night we have a highly anticipated matchup in the AFC East between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. The Bills are Superbowl hopefuls after their season was ended by Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the opening round of the 2022 playoffs.
I think Josh Allen’s arm injury had a lot to do with the offenses’ late season woes and a healthy Von Miller should give this pass rush the spark they needed against the Bengals. On the other hand, I’m not so hot on the Aaron Rodgers led Jets.
Many fans are expecting a huge leap from the Jets under Aaron Rodgers, on the heels of their spectacular defensive season. Rodgers is still 40 years old and has started to show signs of aging over the past few years. He’s had the benefit of one of the league’s best offensive lines throughout his career and now walks into a questionable Jets line.
The line for this game sits at Buffalo -2.5 and the total is hovering around 45.5 or 45. My play will be on the total this one, although I suggest getting this bet down sooner rather than later.
The under opened up at 47 earlier this summer and has been steadily bet down, with some markets as low at 44.5 at the moment. I would hit the stray 45.5’s available at most shops, as the only direction I see this going is further down.
The Bills finished 2nd in defensive DVOA in 2022 and the Jets finished 6th. I think the Jets offense is especially in for some trouble as they face a Bills pass rush that should feast against their mediocre offensive line.
While Von Miller won’t be available Week 1, the Bills signed a capable pass rusher from the Rams in Leonard Floyd. Floyd will complement Shaw Lawson and Greogry Rousseau nicely and the Bills will keep big men Ed Olver and Jordan Phillips up the middle.
The Bills have used their draft capital on their secondary in years past and can boast a healthy Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. Should Micah Hyde be available for Week 1 that would be an added boost to this defense. The Bills defense is stacked from top to bottom, and I don’t see how Nathanial Hackett and the Jets offense is going to have an easy time scoring points.
The Jets signed Rodgers former Green Bay OC Hackett after his famously failed stint as the Broncos head coach in 2022. The Jets brought in a few other buddies of Rodgers in Aaron Lazard and Randall Cobb. Another noteworthy item is what might be a contrast in pace for Aaron Rodgers.
Hackett’s offense in the Mike McCarthy era was much quicker than the style of play Rodgers showed under Matt LeFluer. I’m curious to see how Aaron Rodgers handles the Jets offense as they likely brought in Hackett to give Rodgers maximized control over the offensive play calling.
If Rodgers continues the trend of the previous few years, the Jets won’t be a high-flying offense like fans expected when they signed him. On the other side, the Bills have noted their struggles with running the ball in the past two seasons and seem more committed to developing their run game.
This will still be a Josh Allen led, pass-first offense, but I think we see the Bills try to establish their run game early in the soft part of their season. Expect both defenses to shine on Monday Night Football and expect both teams to run less plays than implied by the total. We’ll make this a 1% of bankroll play on the under 45.5.