The Sunday night matchup in Orlando between #5 LSU and #8 Florida State is in the conversation for the most important non-conference game of the season.
The Tigers are favored by 2.5 points over the Seminoles after the line opened LSU -2. The point total opened at 55.5 and has nudged slightly upward to the current number of 56.5.
The Tigers and Seminoles successfully established the run throughout their 2022 schedules, and we expect them to continue that emphasis in Sunday's game.
Florida State ranked 13th in the country in rushing and attempted more runs than passes in their matchup with LSU a season ago. Now that the clock will continue to run throughout the game after first downs, we expect fewer plays and scoring opportunities in a matchup that didn’t eclipse 50 combined points last time.
In terms of key players on defense, LSU will miss Maason Smith, their suspended DT, when trying to stop the run. Florida State’s Jared Verse was a problem for the Tigers’ offense last season, accumulating two sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss. He could be a drive-killer in this meeting, too.
The number of transfers on both teams helps from a talent perspective. Still, the significant number of players who will play their first snap in these uniforms on Sunday night doesn’t always translate to immediate contributions.
This means that the FSU run game relying on two new starters on the offensive line and the LSU defense loaded with five transfers both have some adjustment periods to work through in live game action, and we believe this to be a tailwind for our under bet.
We’ll play these two national championship hopefuls to go under the total in their season openers on Sunday.