FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks for July 25

Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!

This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.

How it Works

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.

We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.

Last Week’s Recap

It’s good to be back in action in the heat of summer for dinger Tuesday as the MLB trade deadline approaches. We’ll look for unique opportunities as teams roll out less than ideal lineups, as well as players building their value as we enter the back end of the season. The dog days of summer are upon us meaning hot, humid ballparks across the country, creating the ideal hitting conditions for us to profit.

Total result: We are back off a two week hiatus sitting at an annual total of +$346.65 (13.86 units).

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet. I’ll post picks at the end of the article or on twitter on a weekly article thread.

Weather Report

As more and more accounts get hit with the $50 per day max on Fanduel, we’ll look to limit our selections and prioritize games with the most home runs projected.

There will be quite a few rainy spots this evening across the country today so we might see some delayed start times. Otherwise, I don’t think we’ll see any postponements or interrupted play. Despite this, many teams are slow to post their pitchers today, so we are going to be light on the wagers.

New York Mets at New York Yankees: 7:05pm EST

The subway series is back in New York as the city’s powerhouse teams are struggling to meet expectations so far in 2023. Domingo German gets the ball for the Yankees in what’s been a strange up and down season for the right hander. Despite joining an elite club, throwing the 24th perfect game in MLB history, German has not been much better than average over the course of the season.

German has decent to good strikeout stuff, striking out just above a batter per inning, and is pitching to a 17.5% K-BB ratio. His biggest problem in 2023 and in the past few years of his career is that his fastball is just not good. German has lost velocity on his fastball ever year, averaging just about 92mph this year after sitting around 96-97 mph when he first burst onto the scene.

He relies heavily on a good curveball/changeup combination, but I find him way too susceptible to patient hitters who will force him to throw a fastball. The Mets hitter I land on here is Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo has been one of, if not the best bat in the Mets lineup in 2023.

He’s also increased his power output this year, as he’s one homer short of his 2022 total in almost 200 fewer at bats. Nimmo has increased his barrel rate, launch angle, and average exit velocity this year, which all point to an increased number of home runs.

He’s a great fastball hitter, but has also performed well against the curve and changeup in 2023. I’m looking for Nimmo to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and hit a home run at +520.

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 EST

Here we have a matchup in LA that should feature quite a few home runs from two of the league's best power hitting lineups. Although neither of these pitchers are one’s I would specifically look to target, I think Fanduel has a massive misprice built in.

Perhaps the National League’s second-best hitter, Freddie Freeman, is listed at +470 tonight versus an average of +370 across all other sportsbooks. This is a criminal undervaluation of Freeman’s ability and I’m really not quite sure what is driving this price so high.

Freeman hit three home runs in the Texas series and is seeing the ball well. While Bassit has been good in 2023, he’s not matchup proof and I can’t let FanDuel get away with this pricing on Freddie Freeman at +470.

See the full list below: