FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks for August 22

Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!

This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.

How it Works

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.

We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.

Total result: Our season total is now at +$206.65 (8.26 units)

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet.

Weather Report

As more and more accounts get hit with the $50 per day max on FanDuel, we’ll look to limit our selections and prioritize games with the most home runs projected.

We’re looking at fairly balmy conditions across the country today, without any games popping up on the radar as a rain risk. Quite a few of the “dome” teams are playing at home today, limiting the weather spots that are available.

There is a slight breeze blowing out to right in Atlanta, where it will be particularly hot and humid today, as is normal at this time of year. Otherwise, there doesn’t look to be any spots that will force us on or off a play based on the weather. We can zero in on the pitching matchups and consider ballpark factors under their normal conditions.

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees: 7:05 EST

It’s safe to say that this is not what the Yankees were expecting when they paid a king's ransom to sign Carlos Rodon this offseason. Rodon is only making his seventh start of the 2023 campaign after suffering a spring training back injury and then a more recent hamstring strain.

The results have not been pretty as Rodon has pitched to a 7.33 ERA (6.28 xERA) and 7.38 FIP (6.04 xFIP). It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what has troubled Rodon in 2023. He’s still throwing the same fastball/slider mix this year with his velocity staying fairly consistent year over year.

His slider has been similarly effective (40% whiff rate) but he’s struggled with just a 20% K-Rate, producing an abysmal 5.7% K-BB. One thing we may be able to point to is the location of his fastball.

Rodon working up in the zone isn’t uncommon, but taking a look at his heat graph, he’s clearly having a hard time finishing the pitch.

He’s not generating any swing and miss on it, which is affecting his slider efficacy as batters can just sit on the pitch, knowing the fastball isn’t going to be in the strike zone. Perhaps the spring training back injury was more than Rodon let on or he simply hasn’t found his footing on the mound in limited appearances this year.

I’ll be looking for the Nationals best hitter against left handed pitching in 2023, Lane Thomas. Thomas has hit lefties to a 165 wRC+ with a .250 .ISO and .599 SLG.

The friendly hitting confines of Yankee Stadium should be the perfect place for Thomas to continue his breakout season atop the Nationals batting order. FanDuel's +500 is slightly above market, which is in the 425-450 range. We’ll press the advantage here expecting another poor performance out of Rodon.

There are quite a few great spots on the board so here are some quick notes:

NYM: DJ Stewart +630

Bryce Elder hasn’t been a pitcher to circle as a bet against, but he’s shown some cracks in the armor in the second half pitching to a 5.96 ERA in July and 4.91 so far in August.

Stewart has been getting regular playing time in the 6 spot against right-handed pitching. FanDuel is hanging +630 for Stewart while the rest of the market is at +450 or lower.

This is the best value bet in a game that should have four or five home runs hit.

LAD: Mookie Betts +370

With Noah Syndergaard on the mound for Cleveland, it’s necessary to find a player to bet against him with. The Dodgers have cooled off offensively in recent games, but Betts has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past two weeks.

In his past 11 games, Betts is hitting to a 235 wRC+ with 3 home runs and a .293 ISO. Betts is my favorite play of this game.

See the full list below: