Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions.
The Rules: How FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Ryan McMahon +450
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
We’ll start out west with the Arizona Diamondbacks taking on the Colorado Rockies. Naturally with Coors Field, we’ll get one of the highest totals of the day with plenty of balls expected to leave the yard tonight. I’m showing value here on Ryan McMahon in this one, matching up with Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks.
Kelly has quietly had two very strong seasons with the Diamondbacks, but I wouldn’t consider him to be an elite pitcher. He excels at generating ground balls which is what’s kept his ERA low despite his less than stellar contact metrics.
Kelly has benefitted from some good luck through two starts in 2024, giving up an 11%-barrel rate but only translating to 2 home runs. We know the ball travels at Coors Field, and I like the value on Ryan McMahon, who’s been on a tear to start the season.
The Rockies swapped lineup places with McMahon and Nolan Jones, slotting McMahon in the three slot against right-handed pitchers. I think the extra at bat probability gives McMahon the edge here and I’ll be betting him at +450.
Logan O'Hoppe +430
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Another angle we’ll look for on our Dinger Tuesday bets will be games influenced by the wind, that will impact the total home runs in the game versus normal. In Los Angeles we’ll have a decent breeze (10-15mph winds) blowing straight out to center field. For the Angels, Patrick Sandoval has struggled to start the year, but this has been heavily influenced by his poor strike% as walks and timely hits have gotten him in more trouble than hard contact.
On the Rays side, many expected some regression from Aaron Civale following his strong run at the end of the 2023 season. Civale has continued to surprise, posting a 31.1% K-rate. The Angels offense has been a mixed bag with a lot of struggling players surrounding their lineup anchors in Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.
I like the value on Logan O’Hoppe here as my numbers have his implied home run number much lower than the current +430 offered by FanDuel. This one will warrant a lineup check later tonight as O’Hoppe has caught three straight games for the Angels and it’s possible they look to mix in a day off for their young catcher. If the Angels sit O’Hoppe, we’ll pivot this pick to Taylor Ward at +480.
