Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions. Check out some of the rules before we touch on some of our top picks for April 16. Good luck!
How FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report
It’ll be a mostly balmy afternoon across the country, without anything notable on the radar to deter me from any games except the Royals and White Sox. We’re expecting thunderstorms and 20+ mph winds blowing in from center field in that one.
We’re seeing many of the league’s “dome teams” at home today with seven of the games on today’s slate played indoors. That's definitely not a bad thing, especially in April when the weather can be unpredictable.
Isaac Paredes +520
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Just like last week we’re getting this matchup again on Dinger Tuesday, but this time the Rays are playing host to the Angels. Aaron Civale is once again on the bump for the Rays who gave up a first inning home run to Mike Trout last week.
While Trout has been on a power streak to start the year, I think Aaron Civale is due for a little positive regression in his home run numbers. Despite giving up three home runs in three starts, Civale has only given up 2 barrels, good for a 4.5% barrel rate, well below league average. Civale has been great at limiting hard contact since joining the Rays and I think we are better suited targeting a batter on the Tampa Bay side in this one.
I have the Rays home run leader, Isaac Paredes circled in this one at a price of +520 currently offered at FanDuel. Paredes is historically known for his prowess against left-handed pitching, however, has hit all five of his home runs against righties in 2024 and is posting very similar numbers in both sides of the split.
While Angels pitcher Jose Soriano has shown flashes of good swing and miss stuff this year, I think his problems with hard contact continue given his inability to generate whiffs at an elite rate.
William Contreras +520
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We’re going to take a shot at what looks like it could be a misprice here. FanDuel is currently offering +520 for Catcher William Contreras while the rest of the market is in about the +400 range. Dylan Cease has been great so far for the Padres, but I don’t want to get too carried away this early in the season.
Cease has the makings of a true ace in MLB, but often struggles with hard contact, especially when he doesn’t have his A command. It clearly hasn’t been a big issue so far in 2024, but I’m curious if his 10%-barrel rate could catch up with him if the elite 30.3% strikeout rate doesn’t hold up.
There is certainly some swing and miss on this Brewers team, but I’m surprised to see a wide market difference on the Brewers best hitter in 2024. Similarly to Paredes, Contreras is also known as a left-handed killer, yet is producing against everyone thus far in 2024. I’d bet this one sooner rather than later as I expect FanDuel to come down in pricing given their discrepancy versus the market.
4/9/24 Free Bet conversion: $20 on Lebron James o9.5 AST at +114.
