Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions. Check out our 2 best picks for April 23rd below. Good luck!
How FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report
There’s a bit of rain scattered across the forecast for tonight. We’re looking to target the Dodgers game and the Cubs game, as forecasts are showing 10+ mph winds blowing outwards in those games. Now that that's out of the way, let's get to the picks!
Bet: Kyle Tucker +340
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
We should be getting some good conditions for dingers at Wrigley Field this evening as JP France and Jordan Wicks match up both sporting 5.00+ ERAs with a total sitting at 10.5 currently. It will be raining before gametime, but forecasts look like it will ease up by first pitch.
We’ll get 14 mph winds blowing out to center field, making this a good target for home runs today. I’m looking at fading Jordan Wicks, despite JP France having the worse surface stats of the two. I think France is due for some level of correction as it is Wicks who’s been allowing consistently hard contact and a high barrel rate this season.
I’m going with Kyle Tucker in this one, despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Wicks has actually been much worse against left-handed bats, with just a 15% K-rate versus his 32% K-rate against righties. His OPS-against is also higher at a poor .888.
Kyle Tucker has hit three of his five home runs in 2024 against lefties and has no problem hitting for power with a team high .343 .ISO against left-handed pitching. All other markets have this priced up around +260 but FanDuel is offering +340. I’ll take this market difference in an otherwise great matchup.
Bet: Andy Pages +340
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
The winds are blowing out in Nationals Park, as we’ll get a 10mph wind blowing out to left center. We get one of our favorite dinger targets in Patrick Corbin on the hill for the Nationals despite a somewhat decent start for him exactly one week ago.
Despite their overall pedigree, the Dodgers haven’t exactly mashed lefties to the extent we would think, with Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez in the lineup, given Ohtani and Freeman are no slouches on the same side matchups. I’m curious if we are on the verge of a power streak from Dodgers prospect Andy Pages based on how the books are pricing him against a lefty.
Pages only has five plate appearances against lefties but has gone 2-5 in those plate appearances. Pages hit his first home run over the weekend and now finds himself at +340 tonight against Corbin.
Projections are all over the place given Pages’ lack of major league plate appearances, but I’m encouraged by seeing his name move up in the lineup against lefties and don’t mind taking a shot at a +340 price. I don’t love how Teoscar Hernandez is swinging the bat, otherwise he’d be the player I target as Mookie Betts is always priced too thin for my liking.
4/16/24 Free Bet conversion: We converted $15 on Critian Garin +450 during the week. Follow me on X for more!
