We’re coming off a 3-0 week in the prop department during the part of the season where power begins to shift to programs winning big games in conference. We correctly predicted Hudson Card to struggle against the Buckeyes, Bo Nix to avoid throwing a pick against Washington, and Audric Estime to steamroll the Trojans on the ground.
This week, four more ranked matchups headline the schedule, with none more important to the CFP than #7 Penn State visiting the #3 Buckeyes in Columbus. Ohio State opened as a 5.5-point favorite and has been bet down to 3.5 as of this writing. The money is pouring in on the Nittany Lions, who haven’t won in Columbus since 2011. This weekend is the seventh-straight ranked meeting between these Big Ten rivals and will be the fourth in that span where both teams are inside the top ten.
The Crimson Tide look to continue their claw back to the top four spots with a home win against the Tennessee Volunteers. Alabama is favored by 8.5 points after Tennessee ended their 15-game win streak in this rivalry during a thriller in Knoxville last season.
USC faces Utah after suffering their first loss of 2023 and is favored by seven. The Trojans are in the midst of a six-game stretch in which they play five ranked opponents and already had their bye in mid-September. Utah has won three straight against USC, most recently in the Pac-12 title game last season.
Finally, the fourth-ranked Florida State Seminoles host Duke as two-touchdown favorites in Tallahassee. FSU quarterback Jordan Travis will have a chance to carve into Michael Penix’s Heisman lead with a big performance in this ranked conference matchup.
Our best picks for Week 8 of college football player props are presented next. All three of these can be found at DraftKings.
Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) OVER 25.5 Yards
Wallace missed three games due to injury between September 9 and October 14 and still ranks third on the team in receiving yards for the season. He’s taken a noticeable step forward regarding his role in the Penn State offense and is a favorite target of Drew Allar’s when on the field.
Ohio State has clamped down on opposing quarterbacks and receivers in recent weeks, but this is a low threshold to meet for a player on the verge of breaking out before his injury.
Wallace caught seven passes for 72 yards in his season debut against West Virginia, and we see a similar stat line for him as a possibility in this game. We’ve also put a half unit on Wallace OVER 60 yards at +550 odds on DraftKings.
Athan Kaliakmanis (Minnesota) OVER 116.5 Passing Yards
Iowa has won eight straight in the rivalry and ten of 11 since 2012. The Gophers have disappeared on offense in the last couple of years, scoring eight total points across the previous two meetings, which allows even Iowa to outscore them.
One shift this season is that the Iowa defense has given up 198.3 passing yards per game, 6th in the Big Ten and around 30 yards worse than their 2022 average.
Kaliakmanis has surpassed this total against every opponent but Michigan. Despite a recent steep decline in passing attempts over the last three weeks, we expect him to get to this number in a slugfest on Saturday.
Jaylen Wright (Tennessee) UNDER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Wright has played well in three games against SEC opponents, averaging 17 carries and 107.3 yards in matchups with Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Alabama and Tennessee have both been overwhelming against the run, allowing 3.0 yards per rush this season and ranking in the top 15 among FBS programs. The Tide’s defensive numbers against Mississippi State, 154 yards on 35 carries, represent their only blemish of the season.
We’re predicting Nick Saban will aim to stop the run against Tennessee as the primary objective, leaving Joe Milton III to carry the load for the Vols.
