Our NFL player prop picks suffered an 0-3 last Sunday. Both Raheem Mostert and James Cook finished well under our rushing yardage projections. Joe Mixon just barely busted our Under bet on him to add further insult to injury.
Thankfully, we bounced back with a nice 3-1 performance on MNF. Both Unders came home with Matt Breida and Kenneth Walker. Our Over on Tyler Lockett got to the window as well. Our lone loser was on Darius Slayton, which was understandable considering the Giants' inept offense.
It's been a roller coaster of a season so far, but we're still sitting on the plus side with a record of 20-14. Check out who we like for Week 5.
DeVante Parker UNDER 38.5 Receiving Yards
Right off the bat I thought this number was about 30% too high. Parker has easily stayed under this number in 2 of his 3 games this season. The former Louisville standout also stayed under this total in 8 of 13 games in 2022.
Parker has the speed to be a decent deep threat, but Mac Jones seems to give most of the targets to Kendrick Bourne. In fact, Jones has targeted Parker just 15 times compared to Bourne's 28. Look for that trend to continue against this Saints secondary.
Speaking of the Saints secondary, they've done a fabulous job against the pass so far this season. New Orleans ranks 6th in dropback success rate allowed and 13th in defensive EPA against the pass. Take the Under!
Juju Smith-Schuster UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards
Remember how we just talked about Kendrick Bourne hogging most of the targets for the Pats? Let's double down on that logic and take Juju to stay Under his receiving yardage as well. Smith-Schuster has only caught 2 passes for a combined 19 yards over his last 2 games.
After getting 13 targets during the first 2 weeks of the season, Smith-Schuster has only gotten 8 targets over the last 2 games. It's not like the Pats offense has been firing on all cylinders lately either.
New England only ranks 21st in dropback success rate and 22nd in EPA per dropback. We've already mentioned how well the Saints secondary has played so far, so this should be a tough matchup for the former USC Trojan. Once again, let's ride the Under!
Alexander Mattison OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
I was hesitant to even bet on an Over this week, especially since our Unders have gone 10-3 over their last 13. However, my projection puts Mattison's rushing yardage at 69.5 in this one. I know that sounds crazy because Minny doesn't run the ball too often.
All of that being said, the Vikings do rank 5th in rushing success rate and have been opening up more holes for Mattison. The former Boise State Bronco ran for 95 yards last week against the Panthers and 93 yards the week before against the Chargers.
My only concern with this play is the recent addition of Cam Akers, who the Vikings just picked up from the Rams. Akers only got 5 carries last week, so I'm hoping he won't take too many opportunities away from Mattison. Kansas City has a decent defense, but they rank just 22nd in yards per rush allowed. We'll play the Over with Mattison!
Jaylen Warren UNDER 29.5 Rushing Yards
I just had to add another Under to this Sunday's card! I know it's a divisional rivalry, but this Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh game looks like a total mismatch. The Steelers rank just 28th in EPA per rush and 30th in rushing success rate.
That's not good news against a Ravens defense that ranks 5th and 9th in those categories, respectively. It's easy to see why I like Warren to stay Under this total. Also, don't forget that Najee Harris will still get the lion's share of the carries for Pittsburgh.
A low number of expected carries and a bad matchup aren't the only reasons to take Warren Under this total. The Steelers O-Line is banged up in a big way. Dan Moore has been ruled out, Pat Freiermuth is listed as doubtful, and James Daniels is listed as questionable. Take this Under with confidence.
