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Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Picks

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
September 28, 2023
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Picks

We went a perfect 3-0 last Sunday with our NFL player prop bets and followed that up with a nice 2-1 performance on Monday Night Football. That brings us to 14-8 on the season and we feel good about this week's card.

This Sunday's slate of games should be incredible, as we get Miami at Buffalo and Baltimore at Cleveland in the early portion. New England will take on Dallas in the afternoon slate to add even more intrigue to the day's card.

After hours of research and some intense number crunching, here are the best player prop picks for NFL Week 4. Good luck!

Raheem Mostert OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (Fanatics)

This is my favorite prop bet of the week for a variety of reasons. I picked this number up at Fanatics, but I don't mind taking Over 53.5 at FanDuel either. Mostert is coming off an incredible performance against the Broncos where he ran for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The former 49er shouldn't have any trouble going over this number against a subpar Bills rush defense. Miami's offense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush, while Buffalo's defense ranks 14th in EPA per rush allowed. The most telling stat though is yards per rush.

The Dolphins lead the NFL in that category with a per carry average of 6.1! The Bills rank dead last in yards per rush allowed, as they give up 5.9 yards per carry. Sure, upstart rookie De'Von Achane will get his fair share of carries, but this number is still way too low. Jump on this number before it closes near 60!

James Cook OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (PointsBet)

Miami isn't the only team in the AFC East that can run the football. Buffalo's offense ranks 2nd in rushing success rate and 3rd in EPA per rush. The Bills have a solid O-line and most of the time, opponents are more worried about defending their passing game.

Cook should be able to find some holes against a Miami defense that's 30th in rushing success rate allowed and 29th in EPA per rush allowed. The former Georgia star rumbled for 98 yards against the Commanders last week and a whopping 123 yards against the Raiders in Week 2.

Last season, Cook's median rushing average was 62.5. After making an adjustment for Miami's soft rush defense, I made this line 71.5. Take the Over!

I'll be back tomorrow to add at least one more player prop pick once more of the lines open up. I wanted to get these 2 Overs out quickly to y'all because these lines won't be there for very long.

Joe Mixon UNDER 53.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)

Y'all just know I had to throw an Under in here somewhere. Yes, I know that Mixon has gone over this number in all 3 of his games this season. However, this Tennessee rush defense is an entirely different animal.

For the season, the Titans are only allowing 2.6 yards per carry, which leads the NFL. They also rank 5th in EPA per rush allowed and 3rd in rushing success rate allowed. Cincy ranks an abysmal 20th in EPA per rush and 29th in rushing success rate.

Even last season when the Cincy offense was hitting on all cylinders, Mixon's median rushing number was still just 57.5. I adjusted that number down 20% to 46.5 because of the nasty Titans defensive line. Look for Mixon to finish somewhere in the 40s. Let's ride the Under!

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