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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Live Odds and Best Bets for Lewis vs. Nascimento

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
May 9, 2024
UFC Fight Night Live Odds and Best Bets for Lewis vs. Nascimento

Are you locked and loaded for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, May 11? Our betting guide will give all of the odds and best bets you need for Lewis vs. Nascimento.

Check out our Main Event play, our Main Card play, and our top Parlay below. Good luck, folks!

Main Event Play: Rodrigo Nascimento (+136 at Draftkings)

Here in the main event, Nascimento will face Derrick Lewis, the knockout king. With 22 of his 27 career victories coming via KO/TKO combined with him nearing the age of 40, it is going to be rare that one of his fights make it to a decision.

That rarity occurred in his last fight which was a unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida. The loss was his 5th in his last 7 fights. Contrastly, Nascimento has won 3 straight fights, all via decision. At 11-1, he has 6 of his victories coming via submission which will not be easy to get on Lewis.

However, his ability to move well on his feet will help him here against Lewis who will inevitably be looking for that 1 punch KO. We like Nascimento to outlast Lewis here and if the opportunity to finish him is available, he could get the job done that way as well. We believe this line should be flipped and are more than happy to get plus money on our play here.

Main Card Top Play: Nursulton Ruziboev (+118 at Fanduel)

Joaquin Buckley has been on absolute fire ever since making the move to welterweight. The power he possesses as a former middleweight has served him well in his 3 fights in the new weight class.

He is 3-0 as a welterweight and picked up his 1st KO/TKO at that weight in his last fight with Vicente Luque. However, Luque just did not seem like his normal self in that fight. Not to take anything away from Buckley, he looked like he could have handled a prime Luque if faced with him that night.

He is facing one of the most seasoned 30-year-olds in the welterweight division here. Nursulton has 44 professional fights and 34 wins among those fights. He is on a 10-fight win streak right now and has finished every opponent during that streak. We expect Buckley to come out aggressively as always, but Nursulton will be able to either weather that storm or use his counter ability to hurt Buckley in some early exchanges.

Main Card Top Parlay: Carlos Ulberg/Mateusz Rebecki (-135 at Draftkings)

American Top Team’s Rebecki is training in arguably the best lightweight class of any gym in the world right now. Porier, Tsarukyan, Renato “Moicano” Carneiro, and Gamrot are just some of the names that he has on his team as potential sparring partners and training partners.

At 19-1, it is no surprise that he is the biggest favorite on the card. Carlos Ulberg is currently 10-1 and has finished 4 straight opponents. He is facing a tough opponent in Alonzo Menifield who has won 4 straight fights with his last loss coming in 2021 to William Knight.

While Menifield is an imposing fighter, Ulberg is not someone that gets intimidated and has the advantage over Menifield in all aspects of fights. Can Menifield win? Absolutely, but it will take a couple of mistakes by Ulberg which we just don’t see happening here. With a win, Ulberg should jump up into the Top 15 rankings of the division.

Other Leans:
Alex Caceres (+180 at Draftkings)
Robelis Despaigne (-218 at Draftkings)
Chase Hooper (+120 at Draftkings)
Terrance McKinney (+138 at FanDuel)
Tabitha Ricci (-135 at Draftkings)
Veronica Hardy (-140 at BetMGM)

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