This Thursday’s Thanksgiving appetizer features playoff contenders from the AFC North, with the Ravens looking to extend their lead in the division as the Bengals try to chase down the three rivals they currently trail in the standings.
Baltimore, the NFL leader in point differential and #2 seed in the AFC, is a 3.5-point home favorite over Cincinnati in a matchup where the total has jumped to 46 points after opening at 44. The Ravens won 27-24 in Cincy during a Week 2 clash when the Bengals were the three-point favorites.
Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson, and Justice Hill rushed for 157 yards on 33 carries, and their defense forced the only turnover of the game in a significant win for the road team.
Joe Burrow tossed a pair of touchdowns to Tee Higgins but also targeted him on the only interception he threw in a game where every possession mattered. The other noteworthy play came from rookie punt returner Charlie Jones, who took a Jordan Stout punt 81 yards to the house early in the second quarter.
Our TNF best bets in the prop department went 2-1 in Week 10 to extend our record over the last two weeks to 5-1 with a pair of promo plays that added to our winnings. Bryce Young struggled against Chicago during his first road game in primetime, but in throwing for 185 yards and rushing for 18, he cleared the low threshold that was the offer from Underdog.
As we expected, the Bears enjoyed the return of safety Jaquan Brisker, and the second-year player recorded nine total tackles to cash his over. Our loss on the evening came from Young’s favorite target, Adam Thielen, who saw 10 passes come his way but secured six of them for only 42 yards. Our best bets for Week 11 are outlined next.
Jackson is coming off his first two-interception game of the season, one of which was returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter during a loss to the Browns.
His passing stats have been impressive in the three games following when he threw a pick the week prior, which works in our favor.
Jackson completed 73% of his throws for 817 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception in those situations this season, and we expect him to avoid the turnover bug against Cincy when Baltimore should again have success running the ball.
Beckham sat out practice on Tuesday with soreness in his knee, but it appears to be a minor injury for the time being.
He’s had 40+ yards receiving in three of four games and caught a touchdown in two straight entering this week, but it’s the inconsistent nature of his target share and reception rate that we’re questioning.
Beckham’s hauled in only 57% of the passes thrown his way and has two catches or fewer in four of his last six contests. He also has zero rushing attempts this season, so we’ll take the extra few yards built into this total as a sweetener.
Underdog continues to dangle these auto-winners in front of us on Thursday night, meaning our parlay only needs to go 2-0 to cash at 6x odds.
We are confident this week as we are each Thursday in the handicaps we put together and will add a Joe Burrow no-doubter to double-up on the existing 3x payout.