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4 MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 31

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
July 31, 2023
4 MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 31

Friday's MLB card was good to us at 2-1. The Red Sox cashed for us at a nice underdog price over the Giants. The Mariners beat the D'Backs behind a solid outing from Logan Gilbert.

Our only blemish on the card was the Guardians, who fell to the White Sox in surprising fashion. Some of these division rivalries are unpredictable, even with some teams that are completely out of the playoff picture (like the Chi-Sox).

We're now 23-14 for July and 102-78 for the season! Let's stay hot with 4 MLB best bets for Monday, July 31. Finish your month strong, fellow sports investors!

Best Bet: Phillies (-110)

I admire what the Fish have done this season, especially at home where they are 33-21. However, the Phillies are loaded with a lot more talent on their roster. Philadelphia should be ready to play this 4-game series, especially since they trail Miami by a half-game in the Wild Card.

Taijuan Walker has had a solid season, as he's 11-4 with a 4.06 ERA. The veteran right-hander doesn't have overpowering stuff, but his splitter is nasty when it's working. Edward Cabrera has been pretty good for Miami, but we're fading him because of his 14.3% walk rate.

Overall though, the main reason for this play is the Phils offense. They've been scuffling a little bit of late, but we still prefer Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper over anyone in the Miami lineup.

Best Bet: Rays F5 (-130)

I hate how bad Tampa has struggled in July, but I still love Tyler Glasnow. He's arguably the most powerful pitcher in the American League and I trust him a lot more than Domingo German. Since German's perfect game, he's 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA.

Glasnow has one of the highest K-rates in baseball at 34.8%! He should be able to dominate this Yankees lineup that's been a major disappointment this year. Glasnow's 90 mph slider is one of the best in the business.

Tampa's offense has been better than New York's all season long. The Rays are averaging 4.3 runs per game over their last 5, while the Yanks are only averaging 3.5. I'm playing the First Five innings with the Rays because of the Yankees bullpen edge. Let's roll.

Best Bet: Blue Jays (-143)

It would've been nice to get this in the overnight market in the -120s, but there's still some value with Toronto. Kyle Gibson has done well for Baltimore, but he's mainly done it with smoke and mirrors. Gibson's low K-rate of 19.1% shows that he doesn't have elite stuff.

Chris Bassitt may not be a household name, but his hard-hit rate of 37.4% is very good and he doesn't walk a lot of hitters. The big righty is 4-1 over his last 5 starts with just a 2.00 ERA. Baltimore's lineup is stout, but Bassitt has the stuff to keep them under wraps.

Toronto's offense is also in much better current form. The Jays are averaging 5.2 runs per game against righties over their last 10 games. The O's are only clocking in at 3.3 runs per game over that same span.

Best Bet: Braves Team Total Over 5.5 (-105)

It's admirable how well the Angels have fought through all of their injuries this season. However, I think they're running into a buzzsaw here against the Braves.

In case you haven't noticed, Atlanta's lineup is ridiculously good. Griffin Canning isn't terrible, but he's going to have a rough time going up against Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies.

Atlanta has 8 hitters with at least 10 homers and 4 of them have at least 20 homers (Holy Cow!). I found the -105 price over at Caesars and think there's some solid value in that number.

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