After a successful 2022 campaign, we're excited to get started with the 2023 version of our NFL player props articles. Each and every Thursday, I'll dive into the 3 to 5 prop plays that show some value. Before we get started, I want to make a brief PSA.
If you've never dabbled in the player prop market before, you need to know that they can be extremely volatile. It's quite probable that we'll have a few 4-0 weeks and maybe even a dreaded 0-4 here and there. The key to success is staying level-headed and betting a small percentage of your bankroll on each prop.
Now that the PSA is over, let's get into it! Here are 3 PrizePicks NFL props for Sunday, September 10. Enjoy the games and have a profitable Week 1.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
I'm expecting a big year from Waddle and this Dolphins offense. Tua Tagovailoa has bulked up quite a bit and can hopefully stay off the injured list in 2023. This is a great revenge spot for Miami after they were blown out last year by the Chargers on the road.
The Chargers did a fantastic job of keeping Waddle under wraps during last year's contest, but that's unlikely to happen two years in a row. Miami always seems to have a hard time playing out west, but with this game being at home, Waddle should see lots of deep ball opportunities.
Waddle went over this yardage total in 10 of his 17 games last season. Not only that, but his median receiving yardage last year was 85! You can see why I think this number is a tad too low. Let's ride the Over!
Desmond Ridder UNDER 198.5 Passing Yards
Whenever I see a game total that's lined less than 40, I immediately like to look to play an Under on a player prop. Former Cincy QB Desmond Ridder fits that bill in his Week 1 matchup against Carolina. Ridder started 4 games for Atlanta in 2022 and had a median passing yardage of 193.5.
While that only shows a slight amount of value, our main edge with this play comes from expected game script. Last season, the Falcons ran the ball 55.29% of the time, which was the 2nd highest in the league. Look for Arthur Smith to pound the rock with rookie Bijan Robinson and 2nd-year man Tyler Allgeier.
Carolina's secondary isn't great, but I don't expect Ridder to throw the ball many times in this one. Let's play the Under here with Ridder.
Sam Howell UNDER 204.5 Passing Yards
This one isn't up at PrizePicks yet but I'm expecting it'll be around this number when they open it. Our reasoning for this play is eerily similar to our other Under. We're getting the Commanders as a touchdown favorite, which means that they could be running the ball late in the 4th just to run out the clock.
Howell looked fabulous in the preseason, so some folks may not agree with this play. However, I don't put too much stock into the preseason because most teams just don't play all of their best guys. With Howell's inexperience, it would make a lot of sense if Ron Rivera used a heavy dosage of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson in this game.
Arizona looks to be in pure tank mode, but they weren't too terrible against the pass last season. The Cards only allowed 6.6 yards per pass, which ranked 15th in the league. Howell should finish in the 180s or so in this one, so let's roll with the Under!
