We took it on the chin with our baseball props yesterday with an 0-2 mark. Max Scherzer pitched brilliantly put only ended up with 6 strikeouts against the A's to burn our Over. The real heartbreaker was on Yusei Kikuchi, who beat us by striking out the last batter he faced.
Oh well, let's shake it off and get back to winning. It's time to bounce back strong with 3 MLB props for Wednesday, August 9. Good luck!
This is probably my favorite prop on the board. Every sportsbook has this prop priced at 5.5, which tells me that there's at least a tad bit of value on the Over 5 at PrizePicks. Ober's median strikeout number is 6, so I'm really thrilled to get this number at O5.
Ober's K-rate isn't all that bad at 23.7% (53rd percentile) and his Whiff Rate is even better as it falls in the 61st percentile. One thing I love about Ober though is that he's 6-foot 9 and 260 pounds. Not only is that an intimidating presence on the mound, but it gives him one of the longest extensions in MLB.
That type of extension makes Ober's 91 MPH fastball look like 95 MPH. He also gets a lot of swings and misses with his changeup. Ober should fare well against this Tigers lineup, especially since he struck out 8 against them back on June 25th.
Here's another nice one! Logan Allen has pretty good stuff, but he isn't an elite strikeout pitcher. He only averages 92 MPH with his fastball, which is probably why his Whiff Rate is only in the 34th percentile.
Allen's matchup against Toronto also favors the Under. The Jays just don't strike out that frequently against left-handed pitchers. It's probably because they rarely play Brandon Belt and his huge K-rate against lefties.
Speaking of the Jays lineup, they have 4 guys with K-rates below 17.8%. Allen should only top out at 3 or 4 strikeouts in this one. Take the Under!
I like Bobby Miller and think he's got a bright future ahead of him in the majors. However, this will be a tough matchup for the youngster as far as strikeouts are concerned.
Arizona doesn't strike out a ton versus righties, as they have 6 everyday players with K-rates less than 20.2%. Miller throws hard, but the D'Backs have a knack for putting the ball in play.
The young righty's median K number is 5 and it looks like PrizePicks didn't make any adjustment for Arizona's low strikeout lineup. We'll play the Under!