One thing has become clear after almost two weeks of the 2024 MLB season: no pitcher is safe. It wasn't enough that Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez were held out at the start of the season with pain or soreness in their throwing elbows; they were just the beginning. Perez is now headed for at least a 12-month recovery period from Tommy John surgery, and he'll be joined by Shane Bieber, with Spencer Strider seemingly on that path as well.
And finally, Framber Valdez was scratched from his start Monday and has now been placed on the IL with elbow soreness. He'll be evaluated by team physicians before a determination about his near future is made, but the trend is enough to make fans fear the worst.
It's unclear how players and teams will adjust their routines to prevent these worst-case scenarios, but top arms will likely be watched closely as more injuries pile up. Multiple aces, including Aaron Nola and Hunter Greene, will take the mound Wednesday amid 14 games beginning at 1:10 pm ET.
The only teams with a day off are the NL Central-leading Pittsburgh Pirates and the resurgent Detroit Tigers, who won their first five games to begin the season. We dive into the matchups and present our best bets for player props among Wednesday's loaded slate of games.
Chris Paddack UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110 at BetMGM)
The Twins oft-injured starter got roughed up in his first start of the season against Milwaukee on the road, giving up six hits, including a home run, and two walks over four innings. He'll face a Dodger lineup at home on Wednesday that ranks second in home run rate, fourth in average exit velocity, and sixth in walk rate among all Major League teams through two weeks.
On the flip side, LA's strikeout rate is the sixth-highest in the bigs, and they've struck out 13 times per game over the first two matchups of this series with Minnesota. Paddack owns a career 9.0 K/9 ratio, and our thought is that he'll need to last at least five innings to go over this total. We think the Dodgers chase him before then and will play his under.
Paul Goldschmidt UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+140 @ DraftKings)
Goldy has four hits in his last 34 plate appearances dating back to April 1, with all four knocks going for singles. His average exit velocity on balls in play through 52 plate appearances in 2024 is a career-low 86.2 miles per hour, and his strikeout rate has ticked above 30% for the first time as a big leaguer.
Not to pile on here, but Goldschmidt has struggled in 31 plate appearances against Phillies' starter Aaron Nola. His lifetime OBP when facing Nola is under .200, and in his last 19 plate appearances in this matchup, he has one base hit, a single, and nine strikeouts. We'll take Nola to win this battle today.
Julio Rodriguez UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-125 @ DraftKings)
Seattle's young star is cementing his reputation as a hitter who needs time to ramp up to top-level performance as he puts together another quiet April. Rodriguez sports a .628 OPS in more than 250 April plate appearances over his career, and his .477 mark entering this series-ending matchup with the Blue Jays is a primary reason we're fading him today.
In addition to his propensity for struggling out of the gate, Rodriguez has yet to have any success against Yusei Kikuchi in six previous ABs. The two-time Silver Slugger has no hits and two strikeouts during that limited sample. We'll need to see Rodriguez turn things around before we lay off betting his unders.
