Through three sets of player prop best bets in the early part of the 2024 MLB season, our record currently sits at 3-5 after a 1-1 result on Wednesday. Minnesota’s Chris Paddack managed to punch out five Dodgers over 4.2 innings and 86 pitches, eclipsing his total and sending our under play back to the dugout.
The Cardinals decided to sit Paul Goldschmidt against Aaron Nola yesterday, which makes sense based on our handicap of his current form and past struggles against the Phillies’ ace. After that voided play, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez sandwiched a lone single between four strikeouts in five plate appearances against Toronto to cash his under at the Rogers Centre.
Thursday is getaway day around the league, though there are several teams without a day off this week, which provides some great matchups for us bettors. AL Central aces Tarik Skubal of Detroit and Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez face off in the Twin Cities this afternoon, followed by the battle of Pennsylvania later today in which Pittsburgh pitching phenom Jared Jones will take the bump.
Finally, the Orioles and Red Sox will close out their three-game series Thursday with Baltimore in position to sweep after scoring 7+ runs in back-to-back games at Fenway.
Our best bets for today’s small but mighty slate of MLB games are detailed next.
Javier Baez UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+130 @ BetMGM)
Baez has continued to devolve into a replacement-level player since signing his long-term deal in Detroit, and his matchup against Pablo Lopez today is difficult. The two-time All-Star has an OPS of .323 from 35 plate appearances in 2024 and is 2-for-17 in his last five games.
The Tigers’ shortstop is 1-for-8 lifetime against Lopez with two strikeouts, and we would be surprised to see Baez hit safely against the Twins’ ace this afternoon.
Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110 @ DraftKings)
Houston’s #2 hitter is heating up. Alvarez has 11 hits in 22 plate appearances over his previous five games, including two home runs and two doubles with just three strikeouts. The Astros face Brady Singer on the road in the third and final game of this series in Kansas City, one that’s resulted in two Royals wins so far.
Singer’s strikeout rate is up while his walk rate has dropped in two starts this season, although his average exit velocity is the highest among Royals starters currently. Hitters have a .138 BAbip against him, and we think Singer is slightly overrated, given the contact metrics. We’ll take Alvarez to humble the Royals’ staff on Thursday afternoon.
Grayson Rodriguez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 @ DraftKings)
Baltimore’s haul of prospects primarily consists of young, athletic field players who can mash, but Rodriguez is a central piece of the team’s outlook following a standout second half in his debut season and a promising start to his first full Major League campaign in 2024.
Rodriguez has gone at least six innings and earned the win in both starts so far, striking out 16 batters and handing out three walks while giving up three solo home runs. His 32.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate to begin the season are both significant improvements on his 2023 ratios.
The Red Sox strike out 27.1% of the time, the third-highest rate in baseball, and their lineup has struck out an average of 10.5 times per game through a dozen contests. They also pose a threat to go deep, boasting the fifth-best homer rate in the league. However, if G-Rod can limit the base runners associated with any big flies, he should be able to make it into the sixth inning again and cash this play.
