It was an up-and-down week for our baseball props, with a sweep of the board Wednesday and the classic reverse sweep following it up on Thursday.
A healthy slate of games on Monday puts us back in a position to review options across the board compared to the five games available last Thursday.
We’ve got three prop plays to start the week and look to keep building positive momentum in the second half of the season.
Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts
We’ve recently covered the Nats’ ability to avoid strikeouts, including in a winning effort for our play on the Rockies’ Peter Lambert going under his total last Wednesday.
Burnes has been punching out hitters at a rate more appropriate for the 2021 NL CY Young winner after a shaky beginning to the season. In his last five starts, Burnes has struck out 42 hitters in 33 innings of work while going at least six innings each time and is now top-ten in baseball in strikeouts.
The stat that this handicap is founded on is that Washington is not your average opponent in today’s game. The median MLB team in 2023 has 80 games with 7+ strikeouts as a lineup, led by teams like Minnesota (96) and Seattle (94), who’ve had trouble at the plate.
The Nationals have the fewest games with 7+ Ks among all teams this season with 58 and will face Burnes for the first time this year on Monday. We’ll play the under on Burnes’ strikeout total against a disciplined lineup.
Bryson Stott OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Stott is one of three Phillies to have faced Edward Cabrera 7+ times this season. He is 2-for-7 with a double in seven at-bats, the best mark of anyone on the team who has matched up with Cabrera as many times.
The Phillies shortstop had five hits in nine ABs during a two-game road trip to Pittsburgh this weekend, including a double in each game. Stott also has an extra-base hit in three of his last four games and a .817 OPS in 25 plate appearances against Marlins pitching in 2023.
Cabrera has been volatile this season, but over his last three starts, he’s given up 18 combined hits and walks in 11 innings. It’s possible that returning home after making each of those appearances on the road will be beneficial to the young hurler.
Still, at this number we like Stott’s chances of extending his doubles streak or getting on base multiple times. Take his over tonight.
Jose Siri OVER 0.5 Home Runs
The Rays' home run leader heads into Yankees Stadium for a three-game series tonight and faces Domingo Germán in the opener. Siri doubled and walked against the righty in two other plate appearances and has feasted against the Yankees in 2023 overall.
In 19 plate appearances, Siri has belted a pair of home runs and boasts an OPS of 1.038 while slugging .688. Germán has allowed nine home runs over his previous five starts at home, including giving up four to the Mariners in late June and three to the Mets last Tuesday.
Siri’s odds are worth a small play in this spot on the chance he goes deep at one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly ballparks.
