We went 1-1-1 with our baseball selections yesterday. The Guardians blew out the Pirates in a game that was never close. The Angels ended up beating the Yankees, but we pushed with our ticket on them in the first five innings.
Our lone loser was on the Tampa Bay Rays, who blew a 2-run lead late and ended up losing on a wild pitch in the 9th. Oh well, that's baseball. Even with that loss, it was good to see Shane McClanahan back to his old self.
Let's get back in the groove with 3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, July 18. Let's freaking go! Good luck with all of your wagers!
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+102)
It's pretty cool that Julio Teheran worked his way back to the big leagues, but we're fading him hard tonight in the City of Brotherly Love. Teheran has given up 13 earned runs in his last 2 starts, and this Phillies lineup should be able to rough him up a bit.
Speaking of the Phillies lineup, they have 6 batters with a hard-hit rate above 41%. Milwaukee only has 2 hitter that fall into that category. Also, Bryce Harper is hitting .401 with 9 homers in his career against Teheran.
We also like that Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philadelphia. The veteran righty has a K-rate of 24.9% and his curveball ranks in the 63rd percentile. Nola is 5-1 against Milwaukee in his career with a tiny ERA of only 2.28.
Best Bet: Guardians (+101)
Well, we might as well run it back with the Guards tonight after their offensive explosion on Monday evening. Fading Mitch Keller is a scary proposition, but this Pittsburgh team is in free-fall mode right now. The Pirates have lost 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9 games.
We talked yesterday about Cleveland's huge bullpen edge and that applies to tonight's game as well. The Guardians have a reliever ERA of 3.33, while the Pirates is a full run higher at 4.33.
Cleveland's lineup is also more solid than Pittsburgh's. The Guardians have 6 hitters with an expected batting average of .266 or higher. The Pirates only have 2. Give us the better overall team and a price that's once again too cheap.
Best Bet: Giants (-126)
We feared that the Reds were going to regress at some point and that time has finally arrived. Cincinnati has lost 4 in a row and the whole offense is struggling heavily. The Reds are averaging just 1.3 runs per game in their last 5 games versus right-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, San Fran has been on fire, especially in road games. The Giants are 22-9 in their last 31 games on the highway. They've also won 5 straight ball games overall.
You got to love fading a guy like Luke Weaver, who has an ERA of 8.66 over his last 8 starts (holy cow). That won't bode well against a Giants lineup that has scored 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 versus righties. Lay the number with the hotter team!
