Wimbledon 2023: Live Odds and Best Bets to Target

The shortest season in tennis comes to a close as the Wimbledon Championship kicks off on Monday in London. We’ll look to break down the draw, quarter by quarter, and identify valuable bets.

Simply put, this is Novak Djokovic’s tournament to lose. Djokovic is perhaps the greatest grass court player of all time. He is looking to tie Roger Federer’s record of 8 Wimbledon victories.

I would consider this to be a lopsided draw with Carlos Alceraz as the number one seed in the first quarter and a loaded second quarter. Djokovic finds himself without much opposition in Q4, making it difficult to find value at the bottom half of the draw.

You can find Djokovic at approximately -190 in the outright market, but I have a hard time recommending locking up your money with that type of bet. In pocket, I’m holding Sebastian Korda at 80/1, taken before his run at Queen’s club. However, Korda did not get himself a friendly draw sitting in a loaded second quarter. We’ll be rooting for mayhem in that quarter to try and pull some equity out of a value bet.

Carlos Alcaraz is looking to prove his grass doubters wrong, as I'm not sure a lack of experience on grass is a good enough reason to oppose him at this point in his career. That being said, his outright price of +350 is too short despite being on a collision course to have a rematch with Djokovic in the final.

Fitness questions surround Alcaraz, but his movement and willingness to play at the net, makes him a formidable opponent on grass. Despite this, I think the odds makers will still make Alcaraz around a 2/1 underdog against Djokovic in a potential final on Center Court. If you're looking to back Alcaraz, I'd rather look for that price than take the +350 outright and be susceptible to injury.

Q1 Thoughts

Alcaraz sits atop this quarter as a deserving favorite despite a few land mines. Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, and Frances Tiafoe all have decent shots to make a run at the quarterfinal if they’re landing their first serve and playing consistently over five sets.

In a potential QF matchup, Holger Rune’s all court ability could frustrate Alcaraz, however, Rune has similar experience questions as well as durability issues in a best of 5 format.

I’m not sure that +550 is enough for me to back Rune in the quarter, given that he’ll have a big price against Alcaraz should you want to back him. The loaded second quarter heavily affects the outright market, which could create some value for someone to come out of the first quarter, however, I don’t think we’re getting a big enough price for anyone to stop Alcaraz.

Q2 Best Bets: Paul+1400 and Griekspoor +2200

Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas lead the second quarter at prices of +260 and +650, respectively. I can't see how either of them are viable options on this surface and where their games are at the moment. Medvedev does not play to the best of his ability on grass courts and has been vocal in the past of his discontent on grass.

The low bounce of a slick grass court punishes Medvedev for playing so far back on return and neutralizes his best attribute as a baseliner. Tsitsipas’ game is all over the place at the moment, with disappointing losses to Yannick Hanfman and Nicolas Jarry in the grass warm up events. Tsitsipas still hasn't found his backhand, which has been lost since his injury in 2022.

He seems much more interested in Paola Bedusa these days than returning to form on the court. I have him circled for an early exit and can't justify him as the third favorite to win the quarter.

I do still like Sebastian Korda to come out of the quarter but I’m not sure that 5/1 is the price that’s going to interest me in adding to the 80/1 position. Korda can be competitive against anyone on the surface behind his serve and ability to change direction during the rally.

That being said, I’m going to take some shots at higher prices in this quarter. I think the pricing of the quarter is inflated from Medvedev and Tsitsipas’ ranking and we’re better suited looking elsewhere.

I’m taking a shot at both Tommy Paul 14/1 and Tallon Griekspoor at 22/1. Both of them have strong serves and have been very solid in limited appearances during the grass court warm ups.

I like Tommy Paul especially as he’s in the easiest eighth of the quarter where he’ll likely face Francisco Cerundolo. Again, it’s hard to convince me that the finals matchup won’t be Alcaraz and Djokovic but I think if there’s any quarter to extract value out of a futures bet, you’ll find it here in the second quarter.

Q3 Best Bet: Roberto Bautista Agut +1200

As we move to the third quarter of the draw, I think we can once again find some value avoiding quarters with Alcaraz and Djokovic. Jannik Sinner highlights this quarter but it’s a trap I will no longer fall for. Sinner is one of the most talented players on tour but has not been able to maintain his fitness across a grand slam.

He’s one of the most talented players on tour but he needs to get his physical strength up to par to be more competitive. His draw isn’t strong and he should have a clear path to the QF. I won’t be putting my money up to back Sinner until he proves that he can perform at the highest level.

Casper Ruud also has a decent shot at the QF but I’m concerned with his lack of preparation for this tournament. He hasn’t played a match since the French Open and has been seen on boat rides, golf outings, and nightclubs rather than playing warm up events. Ruud doesn’t have much grass pedigree, but he may soon regret taking his vacation now given his excellent draw.

Where i do find value, however, is with Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA is nearing the end of his career but still has the stamina and ability to hang with top players in a best of five format. He’s on the same side as Shapovalov, Ruud, and Coric who simply have no form at the moment and are not convincing me of their ability on the surface. RBA is 12/1 to win the quarter as one of my favorite bets of the tournament.

Q4 Thoughts

Novak Djokovic will win this quarter. Only injury really stands in his way. Alexander Bublik is a tricky opponent for anyone when his head is in the game, combining a strong first serve with excellent touch at the net. He should frustrate Djokovic for a set or so, but I have a hard time finding anyone to take on Novak. There’s no value at -550 for the quarter but we’ll look for a spot during the tournament.