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Underdog NFL Week 4 Pick'em Strategy

Aaron White
Written by Aaron White
September 28, 2023
Underdog NFL Week 4 Pick'em Strategy

Remember to wake up bright and early on Sunday to watch Bijan Robinson dominate at Wembley Stadium, while a few slot wideouts in Josh Downs and Adam Thielen should continue their strong starts to the season.

Here are the highlights of our Underdog NFL Pick'em strategy for Week 4. Good luck with your picks!

RB Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 25.5 REC YDS

In what could easily become the Bijan Robinson breakout game against the Jags at Wembley Stadium, Desmond Ridder might be the key to success here.

Ridder has been just above serviceable this season and facing a Jags defense that has let up some big plays to RBs, expect Bijan to feast through the air as Tyler Allgeier continues to cut into his carry count.

Now that Robinson has been fully unleashed, we love to prospect of the Texas draftee to come out of this game with 15+ carries and more importantly, 5+ targets that should lead into a huge day through the air as Drake London and Kyle Pitts should continue to struggle to find their footing on this roster.

QB Dak Prescott (DAL) OVER 0.5 INT

Last season, Dak didn’t have back-to-back games with an interception. While the Cowboys might prove to be a different team this season, New England has been elite against opposing quarterbacks, allowing less than 1 TD per game.

After failing to pick off Zach Wilson in what should have been a blowout, we imagine Coach Belichick hammering his defense to get more takeaways against Prescott, who isn’t the safest with the football when dropping back.

With Christian Gonzalez, Matt Judon, and a handful of other playmakers in full swing for the Patriots, we love Dak to get picked off on Sunday.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) UNDER 30.5 REC YDS

Staying with New England’s team, JuJu proves to be a solid “under” bet on Sunday. The now journeyman wideout didn’t play more than 60% of the team’s offensive snaps until logging 74% last week just to secure one of three targets from Mac Jones.

The Cowboys, although minus Trevon Diggs for the season, have allowed just 103 yards and less than 1 score per game to opposing wide receivers.

With plenty of mouths to feed in New England, this is an “under” bet we are willing to bite on in what could turn into a running battle between Pollard and Stevenson.

WR Joshua Palmer (LAC) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.75x)

With plenty of boosted prop bets this Sunday on Underdog, we love Josh Palmer’s 1.75x boosted TD prop. The Chargers face a Raiders defense that allows nearly 2 scores per game to opposing receivers.

With Mike Williams out for the season, not only is Palmer a name to target on the trade market in your fantasy leagues, but becomes a viable option in prop and DFS plays.

Kellen Moore’s three wideout systems should benefit Palmer more this season and with Austin Ekeler coming back from injury, this might be a breakout game for the third year WR.

QB C.J. Stroud (HOU) OVER 251.5 YDS

Stroud has been one of the best AFC Quarterbacks so far. A top selection out of Ohio State, C.J. has thrown for 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and over 900 yards in three difficult matchups.

He’s hit this marker in every game and now faces a tough Steelers defense, but might get additional help from a near-positive game script. We expect Pittsburgh to win a close one here, while maintaining a lead throughout the game.

With Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and rookie Tank Dell emerging as a great wide receiver trio, expect Stroud to sling it down the field, even against Tomlin’s elite defense.

WR Josh Downs (IND) OVER 3.5 REC

Sticking with a rookie from the AFC North, Josh Downs out of North Carolina had his own breakout performance last Sunday. Downs secured a career high in snap percentage, targets, catches, and yards against the Ravens.

Facing a weakened Rams secondary this Sunday, expect Downs to continue to become one of Minshew &/or Richardson’s favorite targets.

Similar to Josh Palmer in Los Angeles, Josh Downs should become a top priority on waivers, DFS lineups, and in the trade market as a young wideout who should get about 7 targets per game due to his slot position, positive game script, and overall speed.

WR Adam Thielen (CAR) OVER 4.5 REC

One of our off-season sweethearts, Adam Thielen has proved the EWB team right while sitting at the #9 wide receiver spot in PPR leagues.

Facing his former Viking squad at home Sunday, expect Bryce Young to utilize Adam more than the first few games after watching Dalton target the veteran 14 times against Seattle.

The 0-3 Vikings have allowed 236 yards and 1.7 TDs to opposing wideouts through three games. Thielen’s receiving props should be a point of emphasis on Underdog this Sunday.

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