UFC 298 is LIVE on ESPN Plus this weekend, and we fight fans couldn't be more excited. It's our first stacked card of the year, so let's not waste any time and see what best bets we can place before the fights kick off on Saturday at 6 PM EST.
Best Bet: Danny Barlow by TKO or Decision (-155) (FanDuel)
On the early prelims, we have a matchup between Danny Barlow and Josh Quinlan in the welterweight division. This one should play out similarly to Quinlan's most recent matchup with Trey Waters. Quinlan could not counteract Waters' reach advantage and ate punches in three rounds straight for it.
Barlow has a longer reach than Waters and is more explosive, so I expect Barlow to have the same success against Quinlan. We do need to see more from Barlow. His only notable fight was a TKO finish on the Contender Series last year.
We may eventually see his holes, but Quinlan is not the matchup to expose him. Both fighters have combined for only three decision wins in their career, so expect these two to throw, with Barlow having the advantage.
Barlow by TKO is a great addition to those finish parlays this weekend, but if he's smart, he should copy and paste Trey Waters' success against Quinlan by staying outside and avoiding Quinlan's power. Quinlan has yet to be finished in his career, so lay the juice on Barlow by TKO or decision on FanDuel.
Best Bet: Three-fight Parlay: FGTD - No (-105) (Bet365)
Let's add a parlay to the card focusing on three prelim matchups. Check out the odds below from our friends at Bet365:
- Oban Elliott (-295) vs Val Woodburn (+220)
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-156) vs Justin Tafa (+122)
- Mingyang Zhang (-128) vs Brendson Ribeiro (+100)
I debated who would win in these three enough to realize that we should see a finish in all of them. The only two with a significant amount of decisions on their records are Elliott and de Lima.
However, they both have a clear path to a finish if they can take their counterparts to the mat. Also, Tafa and Woodburn only have a couple of fights that have gone to decision in their career.
In regard to Zhang and Ribeiro, take a look at their records. They will both die on their shields in this one. Let's take these three to end in a finish at almost even money.
Best Bet: Amanda Lemos (-135)
Before we get to the PPV matchups, Mackenzie Dern will face Amanda Lemos in the featured prelim bout. Both women are coming off losses in their last matchup, and even though Zhang Weili dominated Lemos, Dern looked the worst out of the two in her TKO loss to Jessica Andrade.
Dern is a strong grappler, but her stand-up has been exposed as she climbed the ranks. Andrade proved that, and there were times in their fight when Dern looked embarrassing. Her chin should also be questioned after being dropped four times in that one.
It couldn't be a better matchup for the striker Lemons. Eight of her thirteen wins have come by KO and her takedown defense is good enough to keep this upright for the majority of the fight. Still, I can see Dern scoring a takedown or two to push this fight late. For that reason, I'm taking Lemos ML at the best price you can find as the safest play.
Best Bet: Alexander Volkanovski (-125)
Let's head to the highly anticipated main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria. Fight fans have been going back and forth between these two all week. This could be a true coin-flip fight, but I see Volk as the smart money pick.
I can't bet against the featherweight GOAT without seeing Topuria against a higher-ranked opponent first. Topuria has no holes, but I need more than a win over a one-dimensional Josh Emmett to convince me to pass on Volk at this price.
The turnaround after the worst KO loss of his career is concerning. Topuria is too good for us not to see him test Volk's chin. However, both guys are the same size, so I see Volk using his movement and leg kicks to avoid Ilia's big shots while he changes levels in the process, leading to a decision victory.
Other Leans:
- Miranda Maverick def Andrea Lee
- Rinya Nakamura def Carlos Vera
- Roman Kopylov def Anthony Hernandez
- Ian Garry def Geoff Neal
- Robert Whittaker def Paul Costa
