UFC 299 has come and gone and the countdown to UFC 300 begins now! First, we have several Apex events, starting with UFC Vegas 88 live this Saturday on ESPN Plus.
Let's take a look at some matchups and place some best bets before the fights kick off at 4 pm EST. Good luck, fight fans!
Gerald Meerschaert by Submission +125 (Bet365)
Given that 27 of Gerald Meerschaert's 35 wins have come by submission, I'm surprised to see this prop at this price. His last seven wins have been subs, and he'll have a clear grappling advantage over his opponent.
Across the octagon will be Bryan Barberena, who was subbed in two out of his last three fights and was taken down 13 times in his most recent loss that went to decision.
Barberena may be hard to finish, but his move to middleweight has done him no favors, and Meerschaert should have enough control time on the mat to score his 28th submission win.
Issac Dulgarian by TKO or Decision -110 (FanDuel)
Christian Rodiguez will look to snatch away another undefeated record when he takes on the accomplished wrestler Issac Dulgarian.
Rodriguez missed the 135-pound limit in both of his wins against Raul Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman, forcing him to 145 this weekend. For that reason, Dulgarian should have the strength advantage since he's been fighting at this weight class for all of his pro bouts.
Rodriguez's only loss was to Jonathan Pearce. He was taken down six times and gave up 11 minutes of control time on the mat. I like this one to play out similarly, with Dulgarian scoring takedowns, where he can use his wrestling and strength advantage to drain Rodriguez and eventually look for a stoppage.
The unknown will be Dulgarian's cardio since he's never been past round 1. Most have sided with Rodriguez for this reason, but the undefeated prospect trains at elevation in Denver, CO, and should be fully prepared for a three-round right with the more experienced Rodriguez.
If Rodriguez is on the mat early, this could be another round 1 stoppage for Dulgarian. However, Rodriguez has shown the ability to survive on the bottom using his jiu-jitsu and submission defense. For that reason, I could also see Dulgarian taking him down and controlling the fight for at least two of the three rounds to win a decision.
Dulgarian is most known for his ground and pound rather than his submissions, so the double chance prop feels like a discount on his heavy ML price.
2-Team Parlay: Jafel Filho ML AND Kennedy Nzechukwu ML -109 (Bet365)
Jafel Filho nearly had a submission win over the possible number one contender at flyweight last year. Ultimately, he was stopped late in the fight that he took on short notice against Muhammad Mokaev, but he has since rebounded with a first-round submission win against Daniel Barez.
Filho will look to use his grappling against Ode Osbourne this weekend. Half of Osbourne's losses have come by sub, and a questionable split decision win is the only reason he's not on a three-fight losing streak.
Filho's striking defense is a worry, and he was dropped from a nasty body kick in his last fight against Barez. However, the smaller apex cage should allow him to close the gap on Osbourne to nullify the striking disadvantage, where he'll eventually take this to the mat for a submission victory.
Kennedy Nzechukwu will face 40-year-old Ovince Saint Preux, and as the odds suggest, this one should be a finish for the Nigerian.
Simply put, OSP shouldn't be competitive in this one. OSP's recent showing was a 49-second TKO loss to Philpe Lins, and his last two losses before that were also TKOs. Nzechukwu has the power to end this early, and he will most likely do so.
Tai Tuivasa ML -110 (BetMGM)
Do you think Tai Tuivasa is going to miss out on doing a shoey on his birthday this Saturday?
In all seriousness, Tai is at a tough spot in his career—coming off three straight losses to the top-ranked heavyweights Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich, and Ciryl Gane. The Australian struggled with the athleticism of the above names, but he now has a very winnable matchup on Saturday when he takes on Marcin Tybura.
A UFC veteran, Tybura has also reached a glass ceiling at heavyweight. He has a pair of decision wins in the last couple of years, but his most recent fight resulted in a one-minute TKO loss to Tom Aspinall.
With Tyburia's recent wrestling success lacking—just two takedowns in his last five fights—Tuivasa should be able to keep this as a stand-up fight. He excels at facing guys that he can sit in the pocket with, knocking most of them out, and Tyburia's striking defense suggests that this could be an early finish.
Let's side with the younger fighter to get back on track before the UFC's summer event in his home country.
