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Packers at Raiders: Player Props Best Bets for MNF

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
October 9, 2023
Packers at Raiders Player Props Best Bets for MNF

The Green Bay Packers will take on the Las Vegas Raiders to wrap up Week 5 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football. The Pack will be trying to shake off their embarrassing performance on Thursday Night Football against the Lions last week.

Meanwhile, the Raiders will be looking to get back in the win column after losing to the Chargers by a touchdown in Week 4. Las Vegas opened the season with a win over Denver but has since dropped 3 straight ball games.

Ready to make some cash on Monday Night? Check out our best player prop bets for Packers at Raiders right here. Thanks, as always, for reading!

Jayden Reed OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (Caesars)

I cashed an over with Reed against Detroit and don't mind running it back with him against this paltry Raiders secondary. Yes, I know Christian Watson is back and he'll probably get more snaps than he did in Week 4. However, Reed has become one of Jordan Love's best downfield targets.

Reed, a rookie out of Michigan State, has gone over this number in all 4 games this year. Last week against the Lions, Reed racked up 3 receptions for 55 yards on 5 targets. I know it's early in the season, but Reed's median receiving yardage is 51.5 and his median target number is 6.

Las Vegas should also provide a favorable matchup for Reed. Green Bay ranks 11th in EPA per dropback while Las Vegas ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Raiders also rank a subpar 24th in success rate allowed per dropback. Take the Over!

Romeo Doubs OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)

Yes, I know that taking 2 wideouts from the same team is often frowned upon. However, I just can't resist this number at PointsBet when the rest of the market has it 2 yards higher. In case you didn't know, Doubs has been Love's favorite receiver all year long.

The former Nevada Wolfpack star has gotten 25 targets over the past 2 weeks. Sure, Doubs's targets will decrease a tad with Watson a little healthier for this game, but I don't think we'll see that big of a drop-off.

Heck, even if Doubs gets around 7 targets, he should be able to go over this number. We've already talked about how badly this Las Vegas secondary is struggling. Look for Doubs to stay hot and go over this fairly low total.

Josh Jacobs UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)

Since it's against my better judgement to release an entire card full of Overs, we're going to roll with this Under with Jacobs. I know that the former Alabama star is expected to get a ton of carries tonight, but my numbers have him topping out in the low 60s.

Jacobs had a solid game last week against the Chargers, but keep in mind that most of his damage was done as a receiver instead of a rusher. I'm expecting kind of a similar performance tonight from the 25-year-old running back. Look for Jimmy G to check the ball down to Jacobs quite often with the hopes of getting him in open space.

As far as running the ball though, I think Jacobs will stay fairly quiet. Yes, I know that Green Bay's defense ranks just 27th in rushing EPA allowed. However, Las Vegas's offense ranks dead last in EPA per rush. The Raiders also rank just 29th in rushing success rate. Take the Under!

AJ Dillon UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)

Dear goodness, I can't resist this Under either. It looks like Aaron Jones will be inactive tonight, so Dillon will get the bulk of the carries. That's bad news for Packers fans since Dillon is only averaging 2.68 yards per carry this season.

I'll give y'all a peak behind the curtain as to why I like this Under. Dillon's median this season through 4 games is just 26 yards. His median in 2022 was 41 yards behind a much stronger offensive line. When we combine those 2 medians and divide by 2, we get 33.5 yards.

Let's give Dillon the benefit of the doubt since Las Vegas's rush defense is pretty terrible. We'll increase our projection by 20% to get it to around 39.5 or so. That's still 9 yards less than the current number. Let's smash the Under on Dillon once again!

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