Today's college baseball FREE play takes us to Gainesville, Florida, at Condron Family Ballpark. We have been on a heater with these articles, hitting the first four, and we are taking the road team in Game 1 to go for five straight freebies.
This may not be an easy game, and perhaps some people are on Florida because they are at home, a very good team, and Texas A&M is due for a loss any game now. We have found some edges with Texas A&M, that we cannot overlook.
Best Bet: Texas A&M Aggies (-145) (DraftKings)
There are numerous factors leading us to take A&M in Game 1, but it starts with pitching for both teams. The Aggies are putting out, quite possibly, the #1 pitcher in the country right now in Ryan Prager.
Prager (4-0, 23.2 innings, 9 hits, 0 runs, 3 BBs, 40 Ks, allowed .115 BA) has absolutely stellar numbers through 4 games. Now, the level of competition steps up for Prager tonight. We still see him going a strong 4-5 innings and handing the ball over to one of the top bullpens to date.
Why We Are Fading the Gators Starting Pitcher
We also like this pick because we are fading Florida's starter, who has been pitching to contact all year, allowing .310 to opposing hitters. Seven of A&M regular starters are hitting over .300 and A&M is currently hitting .320 as a team, which could spell early hits and runs for the Aggies.
In 16.2 innings of work, Fishers has allowed 22 hits and 16 runs. Each game he has allowed at least 5 hits and 2 runs. He has allowed 5, 2, 3, and 4 runs, in each game, which could be enough for the Aggies to get the job done, if Prager and the bullpen come to pitch.
Fisher has faced a couple good hitting teams in Miami and St. Mary's in his last 2 outings, but now the competition gets a little tougher tonight. The Aggies have drawn an astounding 142 walks this season, compared to just 80 for Florida.
The Aggies also boost a .470 on-base percentage, very close to .500. Fisher is going to have to be on point today, keeping the walks down, and avoiding the big hits, and we think that will be a tough task.
Aggies Offense Can Get It Done
The Aggies have 10 or more hits in 10/17 games as they sit a perfect 17-0. Since March 1st, they have averaged 8.5 runs per game, over a 9-game stretch. The Aggies have had 2 lower scoring games, 2-0 and 4-0, but outside of that, they have scored at least 6 runs in every game.
We have not seen the Aggies perform on the road, except in 1 game where they went and beat a ranked Texas squad 9-2, ripping off 10 hits and scoring 9 runs, while hitting ,278. If we can get that type of performance tonight, we do not think Florida will be able to hang given it has been tough to score on the Aggies to date.
This may be one of the best games of the night. There are a lot of good matchups today but give us the Aggies to take Game 1 here. We do expect the Aggies to get their first loss at some point this weekend, but we just don't see it happening tonight! Lay this moderate price!
