We’re in for an ugly week in the NFL here in Week 7 as we have an unfortunate cocktail of QB injuries across the league and the potential for some ugly weather spots on the east coast. We’ll take a look at the slate and look to extract some value from these games.
I think, in general, it will be a strong weak for teasers with multiple games in teaser range with fairly low totals across the board. We’ll highlight a few 2 team, 6-point teasers below.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
The QB question marks begin here with PJ Walker likely getting another start at the helm for Cleveland. At a press conference on Tuesday, DeShaun Watson was unclear on his status for this Sunday, stating that his injury could take “a couple weeks” to heal.
After missing practice again on Wednesday, I think I would lean towards Watson being ruled out once again, missing an opportunity to put up points against this weak Colts secondary.
On the other side, with Anthony Richardson officially out for the season, we are going to get an extended look at the enigmatic Gardner Minshew. While Minshew has given his teams a spurt in years past, it’s clear why he’s not a starting caliber QB in the NFL.
Despite getting a weapon back in Jonathan Taylor, I’m not confident in this Colts offense and think the best angle in this game is to take a team total under. Minshew was a walking turnover in Week 6, throwing 3 interceptions and fumbling against the Jaguars, while mustering 20 points as an offense.
The Browns defense that they will be going up against is a class above the Jaguars as the #1 team in defensive DVOA. I think we can highlight a bit of a discrepancy at FanDuel here as they’re posting the Colts team total under at 19.5 -105.
We’re seeing the Browns as a -2.5-point favorite with a total of 40 pretty much across the market, with the team total painted at 18.5. For FanDuel to have the total at 19.5 and shaded to the over seems like an incorrect line and we’ll look to take advantage of it.
Best Bet: Colts Team Total UNDER 19.5
I’m expecting Minshew to struggle mightily in this one and am making under 19.5 a (2%) play. I would still bet under 18.5 and you should be able to find +100 or better on that one unless there is a larger move to the under.
I’m not expecting Minshew to attempt 55 passes like he did against Jacksonville, simply because a PJ Walker lead offense is highly unlikely to go and take a big league.
Even if the Colts are able to win this game, I think it’ll be a low scoring affair and prefer the value on the Colts team total than the game total.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are coming off a disappointing game on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys at home and now head into Kansas City as +5.5-point underdogs. The Chargers are on the road in a shorter rest situation, whereas the Chiefs are coming off a TNF victory against the Broncos.
While we know the Chiefs offense has struggled at times, between injury to Travis Kelce and some subpar play from Patrick Mahomes, they shouldn’t have a hard time putting up points in this spot. The rest advantage for the Chiefs is meaningful here and I would expect them to be more like -6.5/-7 point favorites. To see them still at -5.5 is surprising and I’d recommend taking a piece of that price.
The Chiefs defense has been surprisingly good so far this season, 9th in the league in defensive DVOA. The Chargers, on the other hand, rank 26th. While the Chargers offense should be good enough to put up points, I don’t think this is a particularly good matchup for them to keep pace with a Chiefs team with a rest advantage.
Best Bet: Chiefs -5.5
Chargers QB Justin Herbert also broke his middle finger on his non-throwing hand, which didn’t make too much of an impact against Dallas on Monday but is still a point of discomfort.
Simply put, I think this line should be bigger and I’m happy to recommend a 1% play here on the Chiefs -5.5 in a rest advantage spot I’ve had circled all season long.
Strong teaser legs:
Buffalo Bills -8.5 down to -2.5
Atlanta Falcons +2.5 up to +8.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 down to -1.5
