We’ve reached the final week of the season, with a full slate of games to navigate through on what can be a historically tricky day. Information is king in the sports betting world as you’ll need to pay close attention to who’s in and who’s out before placing a wager on any of these games.
It’s important to note what teams are playing for something versus teams who aren’t as well. We’ll look to break down a couple angles on this week’s slate. Check out our best bets for Sunday, January 7 below. Good luck!
Weather Report
A couple important weather-related games to mention here:
Steelers at Ravens: Weather reports have described this one as “monsoon” conditions. Wind is the biggest factor in NFL games and this one should see 15mph winds with 30mph gusts. Mix this in with heavy rain and potential snow/sleet and it should be an ugly one in Baltimore.
Jets at Patriots: I’m tempted to bet the Patriots in this game in what could be Bill Belichick’s send off, however, this is looking like our first and only snow game of the 2024 season. Winds will be 15-20mph with 35mph gusts. At just around 30 degrees at kickoff this will be a miserable end to tough seasons for both of these squads.
Jaguars vs. Titans
It’s win and get in for the Jaguars during this divisional matchup with the Titans. The Jaguars hold the tiebreak over both the Colts and the Texans so a win will seal them as the 4 seed in the AFC as the south division winner. Should they drop this game, they can still make the playoffs but will have a better idea of their fate after the outcome of the Steelers/Ravens game on Saturday.
On the other side, the Titans have been long eliminated after a frustrating season for Mike Vrabel and company. Vrabel’s fate for 2024 is unknown, although he’s expressed that he wants to return to Tennessee. This could also be Derrick Henry’s last game in a Titans uniform as the star running back has hinted at retirement and pointed to Tyjae Spears as the future at the position.
I’m not sure if the Titans will give Will Levis the keys for the long-term view of the franchise, but certainly for now all signs point to a Titans team that will be giving their best effort despite being out of contention.
The health of Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is a huge issue in this one as he’s taken a beating under center in the final quarter of the season. He’s suffered an ankle, back, and head injury in recent weeks with the cherry on top being a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder (the most concerning of all injuries). The Jaguars did designate WR Christian Kirk for return off IR, but it’s unconfirmed whether he will play in this one.
Best Bet: Under 41.5
I’m looking at the total of 41.5 in this one and disagree with the line movement. The lookahead line was 41 before it reopened at 39.5. It’s more likely that potential positive injury news has pushed this line up rather than betting action, but I still think it’s in a good place to take the under as I don’t believe a CJ Beathard led Jaguars would have this high of a total.
If Lawrence is able to go, he’ll still be banged up and the Jaguars have every intent to keep this a slow and ugly game. Defensively, they’ve sort of fallen apart towards the end of the year with numerous injuries in the secondary.
That being said, the Josh Allen led pass rush has been excellent and should be able to take advantage of the Titans offensive line. We’ll take the under 41.5 -115 for a 1% play.
Eagles vs. Giants
The Eagles are seemingly in free fall after their 10-1 start to the season, barely squeaking by the Giants in Week 16 and then losing outright at home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17. We know the team is struggling tremendously on defense and has looked out of sync on offense in recent weeks.
There is still a glimmer of hope for the Eagles to win the division, should they beat the Giants and the Cowboys lose to the Commanders. Although this scenario is unlikely, it should keep the Eagles engaged enough to not call this a bye week game and keep their starters in as the Cowboys will be playing in the same time slot.
This is a simple handicap to me, as the media has come all the way around on the Eagles. During their great start to the season, we pointed to a potential drop off as they were likely overperforming their talent level and benefited from a few “lucky” plays that vastly changed games.
Now as the team is seemingly struggling with identity the media has beaten up on them and looks to be overselling the narrative. Two weeks ago, the Eagles hosted the Giants as 14-point favorites coming off their loss to the Seahawks. After a Giants cover and a Cardinals win, this has come all the way down to -4.5 at the Giants.
Best Bet: Eagles -4.5
Despite the Eagles struggles this is a MASSIVE overcorrection on the line. Yes, there is some upgrade from Tommy Devito to Tyrod Taylor baked in there, but I still find this to be a pretty crazy line.
If it weren’t Week 18 this would normally trigger a much larger bet for me, but we’ll keep it conservative due to the unpredictability of playing time for star players gearing up towards the playoffs. We’ll take the Eagles -4.5 for a 1% play in a game that has no business being lined under a touchdown.
