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NFL Week 15 Player Props: Our 3 Best Bets for This Weekend

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
December 15, 2023
NFL Week 15 Player Prop Picks

The telltale sign that the playoffs are quickly approaching is the NFL scheduling three Saturday games this weekend, leaving football fans with ten afternoon matchups to choose from as the season draws to a close.

Dallas and Buffalo will play in the featured 4:25 pm ET kickoff slot, each looking to maintain their current form in closely contested playoff races. The Cowboys have jumped to the 2nd seed in the NFC after winning five straight games, including last week’s SNF trampling of Philadelphia.

Buffalo’s hopes had looked lost following a mid-November loss to Denver at home, but a win in Kansas City last Sunday has at least allowed them to remain tied with the 7th-seeded Indianapolis, among others, for a chance at the postseason. Dallas is an underdog for the third time this season, a spot where they’ve gone 0-2 ATS.

Other intriguing matchups include the Packers hosting the Bucs and the Jets traveling to Miami with some hope to upset their rivals. Green Bay and Tampa Bay are both in playoff positions currently, and the winner will keep pace with their peers while the loser earns a more arduous path to the postseason.

For New York, they may smell blood in the water after watching Miami’s abysmal collapse on Monday night against Tennessee. Zach Wilson returned to the starting lineup in Week 14 to lead the Jets to a 30-6 win at home over the favored Texans.

We’ve avoided these matchups on our NFL Week 15 prop card, but were able to some great value with our best bets for the week.

Kyren Williams - Over 85.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: -120 at Fanatics Sportsbook
  • Williams is a volume machine when he's been healthy this season. He's averaging 17.7 carries per game in nine appearances and is seventh in the NFL in rushing overall.
  • Williams leads all players with 150+ carries in rushing success rate, posting an impressive 58.5% mark.
  • Washington allows 108.2 rush yards per game in their last five matchups and ranks 23rd in opponent yards per rush through 13 games.
  • The Commanders need help getting their defense off the field. They allow opponents to convert 40.6% of third downs, 9th-worst in the NFL, and are 29th in fourth-down conversion rate as well.
  • Allowing teams to extend drives against them has put Washington at the bottom of the league in terms of opponent yards and points per drive allowed.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Completions

Best Odds: +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Mahomes threw 43 pass attempts last week against Buffalo, tied for his season-high from November 20 against Philly.
  • Isiah Pacheco’s absence rendered the KC run game ineffective against the Bills, with Clyde-Edwards Helaire and Jerick McKinnon gaining 58 combined yards on 15 carries. Pacheco had not practiced as of Friday morning this week.
  • New England’s defense ranks first in the NFL at defending the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush.
  • When teams are not seeing ground success against the Pats, they turn to the pass. Opponents have racked up the 11th-most pass attempts against the Patriots compared to the rest of the league.

Chuba Hubbard UNDER 11.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
  • Since Frank Reich's departure, Hubbard has ripped off back-to-back games of 23+ carries. His previous high this season was 19 before then.
  • As a result of more rushing volume, Hubbard has been targeted just twice and posted nine receiving yards in this recent stretch.
  • Hubbard has reached double-digit receiving yards in five of 13 games this season, regardless of who the Panthers coach has been.
  • Atlanta's defense ranks ninth against the pass in 2023, allowing just 5.8 net yards per attempt. That's 12th-best in the NFL.
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