Week 11 comes to a close with a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs play host in this one and both teams are coming off their bye.
This game has bounced on and off -3 for the Chiefs, with most books holding the line at a slightly juiced -2.5. The total has also been hit to the under as some books are posting as low as 45.5 after opening 46.5 and showing 51 on the preseason lookahead.
The story of the Chiefs season has been the defense. The Chiefs have quietly been the #3 ranked defense in terms of defensive DVOA, thanks to their pass rush with DT Chris Jones and their coverage unit.
The Chiefs offense, while still ranked 6th in DVOA, has looked off at times during the season, still lacking in talent at wide receiver. Mahomes has still been great, leading the Chiefs to a 7-2 record despite a less than stellar cast compared to previous years.
The Eagles, on the other hand, cruise in atop the NFC at 8-1 after a Week 9 victory over the Cowboys. While the Eagles are still one of the league’s best teams, I find them a little bit fishy, having been on the receiving end of quite a few lucky breaks throughout the season.
The Cowboys were inches away from defeating them last time out and the Eagles have played teams like the Commanders and Rams uncomfortably close. The health of star QB Jalen Hurts has been a big topic of conversation throughout the season.
There has been speculation around both his shoulder and his knee at different points this year. Hurts has smiled off much of this, but it is fair to say he’s been less effective this season throwing more interceptions and looking less willing to use his legs.
I see this game similarly to the Miami Dolphins game in Germany. To put it simply, to get Patrick Mahomes at under a field goal has been a profitable endeavor throughout his career and I don’t think the Chiefs will be lacking in motivation as they fight to secure the #1 seed in the AFC.
I agree with the move to the under as the Chiefs defense has held up well this year. The Chiefs have been victim to too many stagnant series on offense which has forced bookmakers to adjust the totals that we’re used to seeing in Chiefs games in the Mahomes era. I do think the Eagles are able to put up points on anyone, but they’ll be without Dallas Goedert after the Tight End broke his arm in Week 9.
Where the Chiefs have struggled has been defending the run, in the bottom 10 of the league in yards per attempt allowed on the ground. This should set up nicely for a big game out of DeAndre Swift, who’s had a great season for Philly since cementing himself as the #1 back.
The game script could see long drives from the Eagles running the ball with Swift, especially if they struggle to pass on this defense. Mahomes and company will likely be just fine against an Eagles team that has taken a step back on defense, albeit struggling with some key injuries.
I’ll be playing the Chiefs at -2.5 (-115) for a 1% play. I also think this is a good spot to look for our favorite field goal prop at over 3.5 field goals for +110 at DK (1%).