The Week 5 college football slate isn't as juicy as last week. That being said, there are still plenty of intriguing matchups and opportunities for positive EV wagers.
The stakes are now even higher since we're finally getting into the meat of conference play. Here are 4 best bets for Saturday, September 30. Good luck with your action!
Georgia Bulldogs -14.5 over Auburn Tigers
The #1 Georgia Bulldogs are right where everyone expected them to be at this point of the season, undefeated. However, they did have trouble against South Carolina where they won by just 10 as almost a 4-touchdown favorite.
Carson Beck has been completing over 72% of his passes and almost 300 yards per game. He has also helped the Bulldogs to convert on a 17th best 52% of 3rd down conversions this season. As good as he has been, it has been the defense that has truly been dominate. They have allowed an average of just 11.25ppg and have forced 6 turnovers.
Auburn was 3-0 prior to last week’s meeting with Texas A&M. There, they fell behind 20-3 after 3 quarters and were never able to make a comeback.
On the year, the Tigers have been led by a steady run game that is averaging almost 200 yards per game and a defense that is ranked 35th in points allowed at 16. Thorne, Greiner, and Ashford all saw time under center against the Aggies and it is anyone’s guess who they put back there each series this week.
The Bulldogs are due to make a big-time statement. They struggled against their only decent opponent but we believe they are going into Auburn and looking to shut them out and will try to hang 35 on them. None of the Auburn QBs are going to be able to handle the relentless rush of the Bulldogs. Give us Georgia, BIG!
Key Betting Trends for Georgia at Auburn
- UGA is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against Auburn.
- UGA is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
- Auburn is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against Georgia.
- Auburn is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the East Division.
LSU Tigers -2.5 over Mississippi Rebels
After losing to FSU in their opener, LSU has rattled off 3 straight wins, including their latest at home against Arkansas 34-31. Jayden Daniels is averaging 325 yards per game and has thrown 12 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.
7 different ball carriers have scored touchdowns on the ground for the Tigers. The defense has been ok, but will need to step up in this road matchup at Ole Miss. The 25ppg they are allowing could get punched up against a strong scoring team like the Rebels.
Ole Miss was 3-0 before heading into Tuscaloosa where they walked away with another loss in their series against the Tide. Lane Kiffin continued to struggle to find a way to defeat his mentor, Nick Saban. However, they are still playing good ball this season.
Jaxson Dart has looked good and has the offense averaging 42ppg and over 470 yards per game. 3rd down conversions have been an issue for the Rebels as they have converted only 35.4% of them into 1st down.
We believe the Tigers will pounce on a wounded Rebels team this weekend. Ole Miss is still licking their wounds from Bama and the LSU offense will look to take advantage. While the LSU defense has not been super impressive, they should be able to handle the Rebel offense that has not found a way to consistently move the chains on 3rd down.
Key Betting Trends for LSU at Ole Miss
- LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Mississippi.
- LSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.
- Ole Miss is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the SEC.
- Ole Miss is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against an opponent in the West Division division.
Duke Blue Devils +5.5 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The #11 Irish head into Duke after taking an extremely tough loss against #6 Ohio State last week. Leading 14-10 in the final seconds, the Irish inexplicably had just 10 men on the field and allowed the Buckeyes to punch in a last second touchdown to win the game.
In a game that featured strong ball security and 0 turnovers from either team, the defenses still dominated the day. Sam Hartman was efficient but was unable to put up the big numbers he had been to this point and Audric Estime averaged 5 yards per carry but was given the rock only 14 times.
Duke is 4-0 and ranked 17th in the country. After defeating then #25 Clemson in their opener 28-7, Duke has beaten Lafayette, Northwestern, and Connecticut. Outside of their meeting with FSU in October and UNC in November, this will be the biggest game of the season.
With the other 2 games being on the road, this will be the only opportunity the Duke faithful will have to knock off a ranked team at home the rest of the way. Riley Leonard has been solid all season and done things with his arm and his legs.
He has got a pair of receivers in Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore who each have snatched 20 catches for about 250 yards each and a combined 3 touchdowns. That all said, it is the defense that has been the strongest piece of this Duke football team. They are allowing just 8.75ppg which is 5th in the country.
Notre Dame coming off a tough loss to OSU might be in a hangover spot here as they head on the road. Things will not get any easier for Sam Hartman and company against this vaunted Duke defense. We certainly would not be surprised if Duke pulls off this home upset but certainly see them capable of covering the number.
Key Betting Trends for Notre Dame at Duke
- ND is 1-2 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Duke.
- Duke is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
- Duke is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
- Duke is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the underdog.
Iowa Hawkeyes -12 over Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans are 2-2 and have already fired their head coach. Things don’t get any easier for them as they head into the heart of their conference schedule here. Washington hung 41 on them before Maryland dropped 31 last week. The offense has not been much better, combining for a total of 16 points in those 2 games.
Noah Kim is struggling to stay above a 55% completion percentage while Nathan Carter is averaging almost 100 yards per game on the ground with 4 touchdowns. However, averaging 23ppg but allowing 23.25ppg is not a recipe for success.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a shutout loss to Penn State last week. Cade McNamara and company were held to just 1 of 9 on 3rd conversions and 76 total yards. Prior to the PSU game, Iowa had looked like a different offense and were averaging over 28ppg. And while the 31 points they allowed last week was not ideal, prior they had been allowing only 12.3ppg to their opponents.
If this were a road game like the one ND is heading into, we would be a bit worried about Iowa. However, they are at home and are playing a MSU team that could be lining up to mail in the rest of their season. We expect Iowa to look all of the way they looked prior to the PSU game, as MSU is a far inferior team at the moment.
Key Betting Trends for Michigan State at Iowa
- MSU is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against Iowa.
- MSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 5.
- Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Iowa is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against Michigan State.
