To say the Week 4 college football slate is a good one would be a gross understatement. Six games will pit Top 25 teams against each other, so most folks will be glued to their TVs the entire day on Saturday, September 23.
We've carefully analyzed each and every matchup and found 4 best bets that we absolutely love! Check them out below and best of luck with all of your action this weekend.
Penn State -14.5 over Iowa
The Hawkeyes are 3-0 and ranked #24 in the country. The defense has continued to be the driving force behind the success of Iowa but the offense has gotten a tick better. Michigan transfer, Cade McNamara has given some life to a typical lifeless Iowa passing game.
Leshon Williams has led them on the ground with an average of 54.7ypg. They have yet to give up more than 14 points to opponents this season but will need more from the offense if they are to compete this week in Happy Valley.
The Nittany Lions are #7 in the country and have 2 decent wins on their resume already. The 38-15 dubbing of West Virginia in the opener and last weeks 30-13 win on the road in Illinois. They are currently 30th in yards per game (467.3).
They have relied on a balance attack which has featured Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton on the ground and Drew Allar leading the passing attack. Allar has yet to throw a pick and is completing 67% of his passes. The defense has been staunched as well, allowing just 11.67ppg to their opponents.
This one could be a lower scoring affair, but Penn State holds the edge on both sides of the ball with a far superior offense. As long as they avoid turning the ball over multiple times, the Nittany Lions should be able to run away with this game at Beaver Stadium.
Key Betting Trends for Iowa at Penn State
- Iowa is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Penn State.
- PSU is 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games when playing as the favorite.
- PSU is 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- PSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.
Colorado @ Oregon OVER 70.5
The #19 Buffaloes snuck out the rivalry game win over Colorado St last week in overtime. Trailing by as many as 11, the Buffs battled back to get the win but, in the process, lost superstar Travis Hunter for multiple games to injury.
At 3-0, Colorado has already exceeded many expectations, but this matchup will be their 1st true test of the season. Averaging 41.3ppg, Shedeur Sanders has been sensational at running his father’s offense, but the defense has been suspect and allowed an average of 30.33ppg.
Oregon has quietly been one of, if not the most productive team in the country this season. They are 2nd in the country, averaging 58ppg, and are in the top 10 in passing yards per game. The run game has been no slouch either, ranking 22nd in the country.
Bo Nix has seemingly found his stride here with the Ducks and is a dark horse early Heisman candidate. They have been decent in holding opponents’ offenses in check but that was against Portland State and Hawaii. In their lone decent matchup against Texas Tech, they allowed a season high 30 points.
With both defenses being at risk when facing capable offenses, and both offenses being some of the most explosive in the nation, we are left with one option in this game; take the over. Truthfully, this one could get out of hand early with Oregon dominating due to their overall superiority and even more so with Travis Hunter being out for the Buffs. In the end, the more points the better in this one.
Key Betting Trends for Colorado at Oregon:
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Colorado’s last 14 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Colorado’s last 12 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oregon’s last 11 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games played in week 4.
Utah -4.5 over UCLA
The Bruins are 3-0 and ranked 22nd in the country through the early portion of their season. However, all 3 were against unranked opponents and now they face #11 Utah prior to #21 Washington State and #14 Oregon State over the next 3 weeks. Dante Moore has been great at running Chip Kelly’s offense.
He is completing over 62% of his passes for over 200 yards per game. The best stat though, is his 7 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Carson Steele and TJ Harden have been a strong duo in the backfield and have helped the Bruins get into the Top 5 in rushing offense. The defense has allowed just an average of 10ppg to their opponents with their most points given up being to Coastal Carolina in the opener when they allowed 13.
Utah is ranked 11th in the country and has a quality win under their belt already. They defeated the Florida Gators in their opener 24-11 and avoided a let down in Waco the following week by defeating Baylor 20-13. The Utes defense has looked like a top ranked defense in all 3 games.
They are allowing just over 10ppg. Opponents have gone a combined 20% (7 of 35) on 3rd downs this season. The passing game has not been up to par with Cam Rising still sidelined and Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson sharing duties, but the run game has been solid enough to compliment their terrific defense.
Utah’s defense is going to be truly tested in this matchup with the high-powered Bruins offense. However, we like the Utes to make this game ugly and keep it lower scoring where they like to play. The Bruins have not faced a defense of Utah’s caliber and if they turn the ball over, Utah is going to make them pay on shorter fields with their run game.
Key Betting Trends for UCLA at Utah:
- UCLA is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Utah.
- UCLA is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Utah is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against UCLA.
- Utah is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 4.
Mississippi +7 over Alabama
The 15th ranked Rebels head to Tuscaloosa this Saturday to face a Bama team that already has suffered their 1st loss of the season. Ole Miss is 3-0 and has a win over a ranked opponent (#24 Tulane) in its back pocket. They are 4th in points scored per game with 52.7.
That has been much in part due to the play of QB Jaxson Dart. He has thrown for 7 touchdowns and ran in 2 others while leading the team in both passing and rushing yards. Tre Harris has been the beneficiary of most of Dart’s touchdown tosses as he has 5 scores. Their defense has done a decent job at stopping the opponents’ rushing attacks and forced teams to throw by going up early.
Bama looks to be in a bad way. Jalen Milroe was the choice to pick up where Bryce Young left off, but he has not looked like he is ready for SEC play. After playing the entire game in a loss to Texas, Saban decided to bench Milroe against South Florida and give both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner a look under center in live action.
Neither were impressive as they combined to complete just around 45% of their passes with no touchdowns and Simpson was sacked 5 times. Roydell Williams was the only bright spot as he went for 129 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown. The Bama defense is still good, but the offense looks like they are lost at times.
Head coach Lane Kiffin has got to smell blood in the water. With Kirby Smart being the only former Bama assistant to have success against Saban, Kiffin has an opportunity to pounce on a Bama team that looks ripe for picking.
Dart has been spectacular but will be tested by this strong Bama defense but if the Ole Miss defense can take advantage of the lack of Bama passing attack, the Rebels should be able to sneak out a road win here in Tuscaloosa. Take the points but sprinkle the moneyline as well.
Key Betting Trends for Ole Miss at Alabama:
- Miss is 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games against Alabama.
- Miss is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in September.
- Bama is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the SEC.
- Bama is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the West Division.
