Since their first regular season meeting nearly 100 years ago, the Lions and Packers have faced one another 187 times during their long, connected histories. In the current 17-game format, that is the equivalent of 11 full seasons' worth of matchups between these two storied franchises.
It comes as no surprise that the Packers hold the edge in head-to-head record between the two when they’ve shared a field, winning 103 of their regular season meetings compared to 75 losses and seven ties and emerging victorious from both of their playoff matchups, which occurred in the same 12-month span in 1994.
Since 2015, each team has strung together multiple win streaks of 3+ games in the rivalry, with the Lions riding the current wave of three straight Ws. Detroit has left with a win in three of their last six trips to Lambeau Field and is favored by a point ahead of this tie on Thursday Night Football.
The Packers are not used to getting points on their home field. Since 2013, Green Bay has been a home underdog 11 times, tied with Seattle and more than only Kansas City during that span (7). In those spots, the Packers have a 4-6-1 record straight up while covering the number 6 of 11 times.
Jordan Love has been impressive through three games as Green Bay’s starter. He’s 8th in the NFL in QBR with a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio in the team’s 2-1 start. After taking care of the Bears in his first NFC North game, he’ll look to continue the same dominance over the Lions that Aaron Rodgers achieved as the Packers’ quarterback. Rodgers went 18-8 in 26 matchups, throwing for more than 250 yards per game and 54 touchdowns to just 12 picks.
Our best bets for player props ahead of TNF’s Week 4 kickoff at Lambeau are presented next.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER Rushing Yards
With David Montgomery out for a couple of weeks, the rookie saw 17 of the 26 carries given to running backs or fullbacks in Detroit’s sweat-free win over Atlanta.
Gibbs gained 80 yards, including a longest rush of 21, for an average of 4.7 per carry. Green Bay has the 29th-ranked rush defense in the league this season and should provide Gibbs with some running lanes whether they want to or not.
If Gibbs reaches 15+ carries again on Thursday, this should be on track to cash. Let's jump on the Over as soon as it's released.
Jordan Love OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The Lions have one of the better rush defenses in the NFL in 2023, ranking in the top six in both total yards on the ground and yards per attempt allowed.
Five of Love’s seven touchdown passes through three games have been 10 yards or fewer from the goal line, and he seems comfortable operating in smaller windows as his team approaches the end zone.
Love led the team in rushing last week against New Orleans and might be their biggest threat in passing and running this week, too. We like him to be responsible for at least two touchdowns through the air on TNF.
Anders Carlson OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Carlson has made all 12 of his kicks in 2023, with nine of those being extra points, in his first season as the Packers’ starter.
One reason for his low number of field goal attempts might be that Green Bay has gone for it on fourth down six times in three weeks, but we think LaFleur may be more conservative in this matchup.
The Packers were only successful once in three tries on fourth down last week, and we expect Carlson to get more than one attempt in a division game where three points could be the difference.
