The Detroit Lions will look to bounce back off a horrific performance against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7. They'll host the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football in what should be an entertaining matchup.
Detroit is currently a 9-point favorite in the contest and the game total is sitting at 46 points across the board. Which team has an edge? I think it's a great "get-right" spot for the Lions and I put them in a teaser to get them under the key number of 3 a few days ago.
All of that being said, the real reason we're here is for player prop bets! Here's what I am playing for Monday Night Football. Good luck with all of your wagers!
Jared Goff UNDER 285.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
I love Goff, but this number looks at least 20 yards too high. The former Cal Golden Bear has stayed under this yardage total in 5 of his 7 games this season. Want to hear something kind of crazy?
Goff's median passing yardage through 7 games this year is 253. Guess what his median was through 17 regular season games in 2022? 252 passing yards! Statistical analysis will sometimes make your head explode and this is one of those times (lol).
Las Vegas doesn't exactly have a great secondary, but they do rank 10th in yards per pass allowed and 5th in passing yards allowed per game. Some of the more advanced metrics like drop back success rate allowed and drop back EPA allowed aren't as kind, though.
Lastly, I love playing this Under because Detroit is a huge favorite in this game. If the Lions get a two score lead late in the game, Dan Campbell may just be content to pound the rock with his last couple of possessions. That would give this Under an even better chance of hitting.
Josh Reynolds OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Here's another line that just leaves me scratching my head. Reynolds has comfortably gone over this total in 6 of 7 ball games this season. The former Texas A&M Aggie's median receiving yardage is 66 and his median snap count is 73%.
Sure, Jameson Williams will get more and more targets as the season goes on, but the Lions just released Marvin Jones. This means that Reynolds's snap count is unlikely to see too much of a drop. Remember how we mentioned that the advanced stats don't speak too highly of the Las Vegas pass defense?
The Raiders rank just 26th in EPA allowed per drop back and 19th in success rate allowed per drop back. Reynolds shouldn't have any trouble getting open, especially since most of the defense's focus will be on stopping Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Josh Jacobs UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
I've cashed a couple of times playing this and feel pretty good about it on Monday Night Football. Jacobs is a focal point of the Raiders offense, but he's been struggling to get going this season. The former Alabama star has a median rushing number of only 58, which definitely favors an Under.
Despite having a rough game last week, this Detroit rush defense is the real deal. The Lions D ranks 10th in EPA per rush allowed and 8th in rushing success rate allowed. The Raiders offense ranks a paltry 32nd and 31st in those two categories, respectively! That stat alone makes it easy to see why I like the Under with Jacobs.
You also have to consider the game script. Vegas is now a 9-point underdog at most online sportsbooks around the country. The Raiders should be trailing most of this game, which should translate into a lower number of carries for Jacobs.
I like that Jimmy Garoppolo may play in this one, which would open up the Raiders' passing game more. Heck, even if Jacobs ends up getting 20 carries, he may still have a difficult time getting into the 60s. Let's play the Under!
