Take two of the Week 1 battle between Florida and Utah kicks off on Thursday to begin what should be an incredible college football season.
After a rollercoaster summer filled with tensions between conference realignment and the NCAA, thankfully we’ll have a marquee matchup to end our August.
The consensus? While betting with the Gators rushing attack, it might be smart to fade their transfer QB and his weapons on the outside.
QB Graham Mertz (FLA) UNDER 184.5 PASS YDS
Mertz underperformed in his time as the Wisconsin starting QB, throwing for 38 TDs and 26 INTs as a starter. Coming into a Florida offense led by 4th pick Anthony Richardson last season, it might take some time for this offense to perform as Mertz is not nearly as athletic nor creative outside of the pocket as Richardson was.
Last season, the Gators beat the Utes in a close affair with AR15 throwing for just 168 yards against a tough Utah defense. They return 8 starters on defense as the quest for a 3rd straight Pac 12 Championship begins on Thursday night.
With this game being played in Salt Lake, I’m expecting a rough outing for the new look Gators as they might utilize the run game more than expected.
RB Trevor Etienne (FLA) OVER 43.5 RUSH YDS
Capitalizing on the Florida run game will be key when dealing with prop bets in the Florida vs Utah bout. When Etienne was given ten or more carries in 2022, he managed to reach the 80-yard mark in 3 out of 4 affairs.
With this game expected to become a battle in the trenches, expect Trevor to reach the 10-carry mark which should produce yardage behind a solid offensive line.
Although Montrell Johnson should get the nod as the starter Thursday night, Etienne as a “change of pace back” could terrorize the Utes defense as the Gators' running attack has always been creative.
RB Montrell Johnson (FLA) OVER 6.5 REC YDS
With a less mobile Quarterback dropping back for Florida, expect the running backs to be heavily involved in the passing game as safety nets in Week 1.
Johnson had 12 receptions last season with the Gators including one for 14 yards against the Utes in their 29-26 win. With the team down in the 2nd half, expect a few targets Johnson’s way which is all he needs to reach the “over” here.
WR Ricky Pearsall (FLA) UNDER 43.5 YDS
Again, this is a bet against Mertz and the new look Gator passing attack. Pearsall had the best season of his college career in 2022 but didn’t even eclipse the 700-yard mark.
Utilized more as a deep threat in this game, it’s tough to see him instantly become Florida's go-to receiver. While he might get some action in the slot, this Utah defense is strong in the middle and could hand Mertz problems all night long.
While betting with the Gators running game, it might be smart to fade their passing attack in Week 1.
RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (UTA) OVER 0.5 RUSH TD
The Utah back finished the season on a tear in 2022, rushing for nearly 300 yards and scoring 6 TDs in a three-game span. Look for Jackson to be a focal point of this offense, especially in the red zone where a goal line opportunity could present itself for the third year RB.
