FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks for August 15

Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!

This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.

How it Works

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.

We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.

Total result: Our season total is now at +$406.65 (16.26 units).

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet.

Weather Report

As more and more accounts get hit with the $50 per day max on Fanduel, we’ll look to limit our selections and prioritize games with the most home runs projected.

There are a couple scattered showers expected across the country today. It doesn’t look like we need to avoid any games solely based on weather, and there are quite a few pitching spots I’d like to attack on this evening's slate.

Atlanta is the only stadium expected to have a weather-based lift to projections with 10+ mph winds blowing out to right field.

Houston Astros at Miami Marlins: 6:40pm EST

Something hasn’t been right with Christian Javier in 2023. His K-Rate has dropped over 10 points from 33% in 2022 to 22% this year. His ERA has almost doubled to 4.36 which is supported by his xERA of 4.57 and xFIP of 5.28.

He’s severely struggled with his secondary pitches, unable to generate swing and miss at the same rate this year. We’ll look to oppose him with Josh Bell on the Marlins side. Bell was a key “buy-low” rental for the Marlins as they make their playoff push.

He’s been on a tear since being acquired from Cleveland, hitting .326 with five home runs in 12 games. Bell has also hit four of those in the past five games indicating he’s seeing the ball well right now. I love the matchup here for Bell, who’s been a great fastball hitter in 2023.

As mentioned, Javier has struggled with his slider and change, forcing him to throw the fastball almost 60% of the time. He’s also lost a full mph on the average velocity year over year, coming in at about 92mph in 2023. On top of the strong matchup, we are getting an inflated price on FanDuel at +520, while the rest of the market is in the +420 to +450 range.

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves: 7:10pm

Fading Yankee pitchers in these articles is starting to feel like a trend, however, we have another ideal scenario in Atlanta. Simply put, Severino has been brutal in his return from injury with nothing popping up as a silver lining. At this rate, Severino’s career looks to be over unless he can make a significant overall to his arsenal.

None of his pitches have been close to effective. He’s given up an 11.2% barrel rate, 46.2% hard contact and an abysmal 9% K-BB%. Severino can’t get anyone out and it’s almost expected that he gets shelled every time he gets the ball.

Matt Olson is the league’s leader in home runs with 43 but I think we can avoid the chalk given Severino’s track record in this one. I’d like to take advantage of Severino’s splits with a left-handed bat. Both Eddie Rosario and Michael Harris are options, but I’ll be rolling with Rosario after going deep in last night's ballgame.

Rosario’s hitting to a .231 .ISO and 145 wRC+ in his last 7 games. I also like his ultra-aggressive approach at the plate for this one as he’s the least likely of the bunch to work a walk against Severino’s 9% BB-rate. Fanduel is offering a market fair price of +500 for Rosario tonight.

See the full list below: