During the post-Tom Brady era in New England, the Pats have dropped four of six games to the Dolphins. They are 0-3 at Hard Rock Stadium, but luckily, Week 2’s Sunday Night Football will be played in Foxborough where they’ve won two of three.
The Dolphins are three-point road favorites with a game total of 47 in their attempt to steal a division win from the once-mighty Patriots.
Both teams produced top-five passing stats in their first action of the 2023 season and struggled to make progress on the ground.
Miami’s offense averaged 8.2 yards per play, buoyed by Tua’s 10.4 yards per attempt, and allowed zero sacks in Week 1 on the road in LA. New England’s Mac Jones aired it out 54 times and produced the first 300-yard, three-touchdown game of his career against the Eagles. In terms of the run game, both units were held to fewer than 80 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.
We’ve readied a prop card for Week 2’s SNF matchup between AFC East opponents and present those plays next.
Tyreek Hill OVER 83.5 Receiving Yards
Hill is one of three receivers with prop totals of 80 receiving yards or more and is second to only Justin Jefferson at this number. He was un-coverable in Week 1 and was rewarded by Tua Tagovailoa with 15 targets, tied for the NFL lead with, of course, LA’s Puka Nacua.
Where Tyreek Hill separates himself is the fact that he hauled in 11 of those balls for 215 yards and scored twice to lead the Dolphins to victory against the Chargers. It’s easy to overreact in this case, especially given that Hill averaged 74.5 yards per game when facing New England last season.
He saw 19 targets and caught 12 passes in those contests without finding the endzone, so this total has those elements factored in. While it may be square to play Hill when the narrative is that Bill Belichick will gameplan to remove him from the equation, it’s difficult for us to see him not eclipsing 100 yards if Tua continues to get solid protection. Give us Hill to go over a modest number.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards
Week 1 production for Stevenson did not meet expectations after his breakout 2022 season, where he gained nearly 1,500 total yards on 279 touches and added six touchdowns.
He rushed 12 times for 25 yards in New England’s loss to Philadelphia at home last Sunday against a stout defensive front and gets a cozier matchup this weekend. The Dolphins allowed the Chargers to rush for a league-high 233 yards in Week 1.
Stevenson didn’t accomplish much against the Fins last year, primarily due to a lack of volume. He saw 16 carries, which he translated into 67 yards, and we believe he could see as many carries in this game alone. With that in mind, we’ll be playing Stevenson to go over this rushing total.
Jason Sanders UNDER 1.5 FGM
Sanders was a perfect 3-for-3 on field goal attempts in the Dolphins’ opener, and his only miss of the afternoon came on one of his four extra-point tries.
He had 10 games last season in which he attempted two or more field goals and connected on at least two eight times. When facing the Patriots in New England, though, Sanders has not been given many opportunities.
He’s attempted multiple field goals once in the last five years when the Dolphins play at Gillette Stadium and made four of the five field goals he’s kicked in the Patriots’ building since 2018. We’ll fade Sanders on Sunday night with that sample of recent history.
