The third-to-last weekend of regular season play in college football has brought a collection of high-stakes matchups that could shake up the top of the rankings. Following the first release of the CFP committee’s Top 25 in Week 9, several top programs struggled at times in their latest contests.
Georgia could not pull away from Missouri at home and won by nine points after gaining only 22 more yards than the Tigers. Ohio State trailed Rutgers at the half and led by only six with 13 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before a pair of late touchdowns secured their win and cover. The Oklahoma Sooners became the final team to lose a game in the Bedlam rivalry and fell to Oklahoma State 27-24 in Stillwater to bow out of the playoff race.
Looking ahead to Week 11, Michigan-Penn State and Ole Miss-Georgia comprise a pair of top-ten matchups with everything on the line this Saturday. The Nittany Lions and Rebels likely cannot afford a second loss on the season with the amount of high-caliber one-loss teams in the country. Michigan is favored by 4.5 points in Happy Valley, and the Dawgs are 10.5-point faves in their final home game of the season.
A 1-1 split in Week 10 brings our record over the last month to 9-2 in college prop selections. We’d love to keep that going during a pivotal weekend in the race for the CFP spots and present Week 11’s best bets next.
DJ Giddens (Kansas State) OVER Rushing Yards
The K-State rushing attack was contained to 1.5 yards per rush against an imposing Longhorns’ front seven during a narrow loss in Austin last week. Giddens and Treshaun Ward carried nine times each for 52 combined rushing yards as Will Howard shouldered the burden of leading the Wildcat offense.
This Saturday, Kansas State hosts Baylor, the 121st-ranked rushing defense in the FBS. They allow 187 yards per game on the ground at a 5-yard average per carry and will struggle to stop whoever is running the ball for the Wildcats.
We like Giddens because of his higher upside to break a long run between him and Ward.
Dillon Johnson (Washington) OVER Rushing Yards
Johnson dismantled USC last week with 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries in an important road win for the Huskies’ CFP hopes. It was a career night for the Mississippi State transfer, who had a pair of four-touchdown seasons in Starkville before his breakout year for UW.
Johnson now faces Utah, the 6th-ranked rush defense in the land that allows three yards per rush to opposing teams. However, the trouble for the Utes has come on the road this season. They've allowed 4.5 yards per carry, more than 132 yards, and two touchdowns per game in matchups with Baylor, Oregon State, and USC.
Johnson has earned top billing in his team’s backfield and could see at least 18-20 attempts again this week. Usually, we'd fade someone after the biggest game of their career, but this could be the right spot for Johnson to back it up.
John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) OVER Passing Yards
The fifth-year QB guided his team to its first conference win in the Big 12 against Cincinnati in a matchup of former American Athletic Conference foes. He threw for just 165 yards while running for 53 and a touchdown during their two-point road victory.
This week, he gets a home matchup with Oklahoma State, who are fresh off their Bedlam win and rank 109th in passing defense in 2023. The combination of a slight hangover game for the Pokes and a return home for Plumlee should be a recipe for a good passing day in Orlando.
We’ll take him to go over his total when it’s announced.
