It’s hard to be disappointed about a 1-2 record last week when we had been nearly invincible for six weeks (15-2) up to that point. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord and Oregon’s Bo Nix both outperformed their totals for touchdown passes and passing yards, respectively, and we tip our cap to them despite having to rip up our tickets. Boston College running back Kye Robichaux turned in an expected result against Miami and delivered our winner as the Eagles fell to the Hurricanes.
As massive college football fans, it’s hard to contain our excitement for the chaos that could ensue this weekend and in Sunday’s final CFP rankings. Eight teams have realistic chances of competing for the four spots in the final playoff before expansion occurs, and seven of them will be on the field Saturday.
Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State are 12-0 entering their conference championship games. There is a clear-cut scenario for the first three where they win their next matchup and clinch a playoff berth. For FSU, it’s a little more complicated. The season-ending injury to QB Jordan Travis leaves the committee in a position where they’d consider leaving out an undefeated Power 5 conference champion for the first time in CFP history if they capture the ACC crown against Louisville.
Oregon, Texas, and Alabama are one-loss teams who will play for a conference title. The Ducks seem to have the most straightforward path. As the highest-ranked non-undefeated team, they should have a claim to a spot if they beat #3 Washington. The Pac-12 Championship game is Friday night, so the paths of the rest of these teams will be clearer by Saturday morning.
Texas beat Alabama head-to-head, which is where this starts to make your head hurt if both those teams win. All the while, Ohio State is waiting in the wings for sheer carnage above them and could get a spot if FSU, Oregon, Texas, and ‘Bama all lose this weekend.
If that’s not enough to get your heart rate up, we’ve got a pair of props over at DraftKings for Championship Week that offers some more opportunity for skin in the game. Thanks for following along this season, and best of luck.
Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) OVER 2.5 Passing TDs (+130)
During the last five games of their undefeated run, the Huskies have leaned into their run game, and Penix's numbers have been more modest in that period.
Washington averaged 23.7 rushing attempts per game in the first seven weeks of the season compared to 31.4 in this recent span. We expect Penix to be more involved in this contest, given the result of his first matchup with the Ducks.
He threw 37 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns during Washington's home win and will need to match Nix, who's averaged 392 pass yards and 4.8 total touchdowns per game in his last four. Washington will need Penix to have his Heisman moment if they're going to defeat Oregon, and we think he gives it a hell of a try.
Blake Corum (Michigan) UNDER 93.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Corum has had success against the Hawkeyes in two previous matchups, compiling 207 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries during two Wolverine victories. This season, he set the single-season Michigan record for rushing TDs with 22 and scored at least one in every game.
Where he's seen a regression is his rushing efficiency. Corum averages 4.8 yards per carry in 2023, a measurable drop from his 6.0-yard career average. The team averages 4.4 ypc this year after posting 5.6 yards per rush in 2022. The line play has not been as imposing for Michigan, and his yardage numbers have suffered.
The Iowa defense has allowed one player to reach this mark on the ground this season, Michigan State's Nathan Carter. We do not expect Corum to be the second and will play his under.
