When this game was announced as part of the NFL schedule release, it was set to be a must-watch between the defending champions and a new challenger in the conference flying high on the shoulders of their new quarterback. By the end of the Jets’ first series of the 2023 season, the energy had already changed.
Kansas City is favored by 9.5 points at MetLife Stadium, a massive shift from the number of Chiefs -1 in the look-ahead lines released before the season.
The Achilles injury suffered by Aaron Rodgers after taking four snaps as a New York Jet has left the team in a familiar position, where their talented defense has to be overwhelming to give the offense a chance at keeping the score close. If that is the case, KC is not the team you want to see on the schedule.
Not only are the Chiefs maintaining their high level of offensive production that’s been a constant in the Patrick Mahomes era, but they also have a defense playing at a top-five rate in both yardage and scoring through three weeks. That is a frightening proposition for the rest of the league.
New York upset the Bills at home in Week 1 in storybook fashion but has struggled to stay competitive since. The point total is 42.5 ahead of their Sunday night matchup with Kansas City. We managed a 1-2 record on our prop card in Week 3’s SNF game and look to improve on that during this possibly one-sided contest in a few days.
Zach Wilson OVER 177.5 Passing Yards
We expect Wilson to get bet heavily toward the under, probably rightfully so. He’s completing just 52.4% of his throws this season, averaging just 3.9 air yards per passing attempt, and has a QBR of 26.7, which places him ahead of Justin Fields for 33rd in the league among qualifying players.
Because we expect this number to be slightly deflated due to market conditions, we’re focusing on some things that could go right for Wilson. He’ll need to throw a lot to keep up with KC’s offense. His bad throw rate is down to 18.1% this season from 25.2% in 2022, and he’s been on target with 72.2% of passes compared to 67.1% a season ago. Drops have increased among his intended targets, up to 6.9% this year.
Finally, he’ll need time against a relentless Kansas City pass rush. He’s averaging 2.7 seconds of pocket time this season, an 8% increase since last year, which could be the difference between a few extra completions and avoided turnovers.
It ain’t pretty but winning isn’t always pretty either. Take Wilson to go over his passing total.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER Rushing Yards
CEH saw 15 carries in Week 3 against Chicago, the most he’s gotten since last October and only the second time he’s reached that mark over his last 20 appearances.
The game was out of hand from the middle of the second quarter after the Chiefs scored touchdowns on three of their first four possessions.
A similar scenario may play out this week, but it will have to be from sheer volume against the Jets’ D. They held the Bills under 100 yards in Week 1 and contained the Cowboys to just 3.0 yards per rush in Week 2.
Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Butker is doing Butker things again in 2023 and is one of only seven kickers with 5+ successful field goals this season without a miss. Part of the handicap for this game overall is the strength of this Jet defense and their ability to prevent touchdowns in the red zone.
New York is tied for 5th in the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring rate, giving up a TD just 37.5% of the time to opposing teams from inside the 20.
It will be a beautiful, warm night in New Jersey on Sunday, perfect for kicking, and we like Butker to get a couple opportunities that he’ll convert.
