The Los Angeles Chargers are 4-3 on the season, but they haven't really looked as impressive as some experts were predicting. Brandon Staley still likes to go for it on 4th down from his own 20-yard line and the defense continues to be shaky at best.
The New York Jets have won 3 games in a row, even though none of them have been a thing of beauty to watch. Zach Wilson keeps struggling, but he's finding ways to help his team late in games. You have to give Robert Saleh a heck of a lot of credit for keep this team together.
Which team will cover the spread? I'm not really sure, but I did find a few player prop bets that have some value. Check them out below, and good luck with your action!
Tyler Conklin OVER 2.5 Receptions (-118) (Caesars)
I must need my head examined! I just talked about how much Wilson and the Jets offense has struggled, but here I am signing up for an Over. Well, let me explain things before you throw me under the proverbial prop bus.
Conklin is a great safety valve option for Wilson over the middle when pressure gets home. The Chargers defense isn't great but they do rank 12th in the league in sack rate. Once LAC defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley decides to dial up the blitz, Wilson will be looking Conklin's way.
The former Central Michigan Chippewa is quietly having a nice season for the Jets anemic offense. He's gone over this receptions total in 5 out of 7 games in 2023. With numbers like that, I was a little surprised that the juice on this play wasn't in the -140 range. Let's hold our collective breath and take the Over!
Austin Ekeler OVER 4.5 Receptions (+130) (DraftKings)
I love getting plus money on a prop like this. Ekeler is a talented running back, but the Chargers always seem to use him more as a pass catcher out of the backfield. He was targeted 8 times against the Bears last week and ended up hauling in 7 receptions.
I'm expecting a similar outcome for Ekeler against this tough Jets defense. Justin Herbert throws a nice deep ball, but he also has no problem checking the ball down to Ekeler whenever his first read just isn't there. Last season, Ekeler's median receptions number was 6, so that's in our favor as well.
You also have to like this play from a matchup standpoint. The Jets may have a fast linebacking corps, but any of them will have a hard time covering Ekeler on those wheel routes that Staley likes to dial up. Let's take another Over!
Keenan Allen UNDER 75.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)
How about an ugly Under to end this week's Monday Night Football column? Yes, I know how much of a stud Keenan Allen is and I expect him to have a decent game. That being said, he'll be going up against one of the best corners in the business in Sauce Gardner.
Gardner is kind of having a slow start to the season, but he's still the best cover corner the Jets have had since Darrelle Revis. I think Gardner can limit Allen at least a little bit in this ball game. Allen's median receiving yardage number for 2023 is 76.
While that is half a yard higher than this posted price, I made a 20% adjustment downward because of Allen's tough matchup against Gardner. Look for Allen to catch plenty of passes, but to finish up with around 60 receiving yards. Remember, sometimes the toughest bets to make have the most expected value. Good luck on Monday Night Football folks!
