If you're betting a ton of NFL sides and totals each week and neglecting the prop market, you're missing out on some massive profits. Player props are considered by many in the industry to be the low-hanging fruit of the NFL. Finding positive EV props isn't easy, but it's a much softer market than sides and totals.
After starting the season a perfect 7-0, we're fired up for Week 2. However, let's go over a quick PSA before getting into the card. Player prop betting is very streaky! Never bet more than 1 to 2% of your bankroll, no matter how well things are going.
Check out our best NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday, September 17. Let's stay HOT, folks! Good luck with all of your player props action this Sunday!
Travis Etienne OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
I tried getting down on this when the line first came out at 54.5 but it kept timing out on me (Bummer)! Quite frankly, I don't understand why this line is not in the mid 60s instead of the mid 50s. Etienne's median last season was 62.5 and he just racked up 77 yards against the Colts last week.
Sure, rookie Tank Bigsby will be getting more carries as the season progresses. While that may be a cause for concern, Etienne should still be the feature back as long as he performs consistently. Etienne got 18 carries in Week 1 while Bigsby only got 7.
I know that Etienne only rushed for 45 yards against the Chiefs last year, but I think he has a nice game on Sunday at home. It looks like Chris Jones will play, but you have to wonder what kind of shape he's in after holding out for several weeks. Let's play Etienne to go over this total.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 295.5 Passing Yards
Sure, this is probably a square play, but I think Mahomes and the boys will be pissed off for greatness after a tough loss to open the season on national TV. In even better news for Mahomes, it looks like Travis Kelce will probably play in this game after missing last week's opener with a hyperextended knee.
We all know that this Chiefs offense is a different beast with Kelce in the lineup. That should take the pressure off the other young wideouts and hopefully keep them from dropping so many passes (I'm looking at you Kadarious Toney). Even if Kelce isn't 100%, using him as a decoy is never a bad idea.
As far as the value in this number, I made this line 319.5. Mahomes threw for 331 yards against Jacksonville last year and could very well hit that number in this game. His median last season was also pretty high at 328. Let's ride the Over!
Russell Wilson UNDER 226.5 Passing Yards
It was pretty evident last week that it's going to take the Russell Wilson - Sean Payton marriage a little while to get rolling. Sure, Wilson threw 2 touchdown passes and didn't throw any picks in Week 1. However, he still finished with just 177 passing yards against the Raiders (of all teams).
Wilson's median passing yardage was 237 last season, but I made this line 216.5 after adjusting for Washington's above-average pass defense. The Commanders ranked 10th in the league last year in yards per pass allowed. It's obvious that this Denver offense misses Jerry Jeudy in a big way.
Without Jeudy running deep routes, Russ is back to mostly dink-and-dunk type of throws to guys like Courtland Sutton and Adam Trautman. Neither of those guys are going to scare any of Washington's corners. Wilson has also stayed under this total in 5 of his last 7, so that's how we'll play this one!
