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Best Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 9: Jump on Tyreek Hill

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
November 2, 2023
Best Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 9 Jump on Tyreek Hill

As we get into Week 9 of the NFL regular season, most folks will be focused on several marquee matchups. The Eagles will host the Cowboys in an old school NFC East rivalry. Two AFC heavyweights will collide in Germany, as the Dolphins will face off against the Chiefs. Two of our player prop bets this week will come from this showdown!

Finally, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will take on Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Are the Bills finally back on track? Needless to say, Sunday is going to be jampacked with nonstop action!

We suffered the golden sombrero last Sunday with our NFL player props. Thankfully, we bounced back with a 3-1 night on Monday. We need to make some hay and get hot again, as our record now stands at 35-35 on the season. Here's what we have for Week 9.

Rashee Rice OVER 3.5 Receptions (-148) (FanDuel)

I played this at the open yesterday at -130, but still see plenty of value in it at anything under -160. Rice is starting to develop more rapport with Patrick Mahomes, who is starting to target the SMU rookie more and more as the season goes along. He's gone over this receptions total in 5 of his 8 games this year.

For the season, Rice's median number of receptions is 4. He's also getting almost 5 targets per game on average. Andy Reid loves to swing the ball out to his speedy wideouts on some short screens, so Rice could go over this number with relative ease.

The matchup is also pretty favorable. Miami is an offensive juggernaut, but they struggle on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins rank just 26th in opponent completion percentage (69.52%). Take the Over!

Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 Receptions (-136) (FanDuel)

This play is as square as they come, but you can bet your bottom dollar that Hill is going to want to go off on his former team. Kansas City chose not to re-sign Hill even after he helped them win a Super Bowl in 2019. Big things occur when great athletes have a chip on their shoulder.

Hill's median receptions number this season is 8. I know that Kansas City's pass defense has greatly improved, but I still would've made this number 7.5 instead of 6.5. Another insane stat in our favor is that Hill is getting nearly 11 targets per game in this up-tempo Dolphins offense.

The former West Alabama standout has also gone over this receptions total in 5 of his 8 games this season. Last season, Hill's median was 7 receptions through a full 17 game schedule. The juice is worth the proverbial squeeze on this Over!

Jake Ferguson UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-125) (Unibet)

Y'all know I couldn't make it 3 straight Overs! Ferguson is a promising young tight end, but I don't see him having a huge impact for the Cowboys this week against the stout Eagles defense. The former Wisconsin Badger has stayed Under this total in 4 of 7 games this season.

It's no secret that Dak Prescott's favorite target is CeeDee Lamb. Brandin Cooks has also been getting more involved for Dallas of late. I just don't think Ferguson will get many targets in this one.

Philly has a couple of talented linebackers in Nakobe Dean and Zach Cunningham. Both of these guys have the ability to cover Ferguson over the middle if needed. Look for the Eagles to hold Ferguson in check for most of the afternoon.

Let's close out Sunday with a nice Under. Good luck with all of your plays this weekend!

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