What's happening, sports betting family? I'm so pumped to be back after a fantastic Vegas vacation last week! As much fun as the concerts, rodeo, and other activities were, I must admit I did miss grinding out some player prop metrics with y'all.
Week 16 of the NFL schedule is a doozy. Besides the usual Thursday night game, we get two games on Saturday and ten on Sunday. The week wraps up on Christmas Day (Monday) with a tripleheader that's sure to have something for everyone. We'll cover Monday's props in a separate post, but here is what we have on tap for Saturday and Sunday's slate.
Tanner Hudson OVER 2.5 Receptions (-135) (BetMGM)
You just have to love a guy like Tanner Hudson! He's went from relative obscurity to quietly becoming a go-to guy in this Bengals offense. The Southern Arkansas alum didn't do much this season until Week 9, but he's been giving defenses some serious headaches ever since.
In fact, since Week 9 Hudson has caught 4 or more passes in 6 of 7 games. The 6-5, 239-pounder has also already proven to be a favorite target of new QB Jake Browning. There's no reason to think that Browning won't hook up with Hudson at least three times in this game against the Steelers.
Speaking of the Steelers, Hudson hauled in 4 receptions against them back on November 26. I think he gets at least that many in this one. Pittsburgh is allowing 4.9 receptions per game to tight ends this season. Let's take the Over in this one for Saturday afternoon.
TJ Hockenson OVER 5.5 Receptions (-111) (Caesars)
Boy, don't you know that Hock would love to do some damage against his former team? The Detroit Lions traded Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings last November for a couple of draft picks. As one of the best tight ends in the game, that had to feel like a slap in the face for Hockenson.
The former Iowa Hawkeye has been a model of consistency for Minnesota this season, even with their carousel of rotating QBs. Hockenson has a median receptions number of 6 in 2023. He also has a median target share number of 8, which is also encouraging for our Over in this spot.
The Lions defend the tight end pretty well, but their secondary will have their hands full trying to limit Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in this one. Hock has gone over this number in 9 of his 14 ball games this year and we think he'll do so here against his old teammates. Take the Over!
Justin Fields UNDER 19.5 Passing Completions (-102) (FanDuel)
Yes, I know how horrible Arizona's pass defense is. Yes, I know that some backup college QBs could probably feast against the Cards. However, I still don't completely trust Justin Fields as a passer. He's improved but asking him to complete 20 balls is a tall order.
For the season, Fields has a median completions number of just 17.5. The former Ohio State star has also stayed under 19.5 completions in 7 of his 10 ball games in 2023. Just those two metrics alone make me like this Under quite a bit.
Lastly, the Bears are a favorite in this game, and they love to pound the rock. If Da Bears get any type of lead, they'll be looking to call lots of zone read plays with Fields running the ball on quite a few QB keepers. Chicago also runs the ball at a 47.48% clip, which is the 4th-most in the NFL. Hold your breath and take a flyer on the Under.
