After a pair of subpar 1-2 performances over Sunday and Monday, we're piping mad and ready to get back into the winner's circle. Even with those rough couple of days, we're still sitting at a respectable 9-5 on the young season with our NFL player props.
If you've never bet on props before, be prepared for a wild ride. For example, we started out the season 7-0 but are currently in the midst of a 2-5 skid. The reason I'm mentioning this is to remind everyone (myself included) that it's important to never get too high or too low.
Here are the 3 best NFL Week 3 player prop picks I could find! Have fun and bet responsibly on all occasions, folks!
Zach Wilson UNDER 185.5 Passing Yards (Pointsbet)
Fanatics and Pointsbet are giving us a gift with this number, as the rest of the market has this prop priced at 179.5. Six yards doesn't sound like much but getting a 3% edge on what all the other sportsbooks are offering is never a bad thing.
I almost feel a little sorry for Zach Wilson. He was expecting a nice cushy season of watching and learning from Aaron Rodgers. Now, the poor kid has been thrown back out into the lion's den. Through 9 games last season, Wilson's median passing yardage was 154.
Bill Belichick may be getting on up there in years, but he still knows how to make Wilson's life miserable. In 4 career games against the Patriots, Wilson has only thrown for an average of 173.3 yards. That's enough for me to jump on the Under.
Jordan Addison OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
I picked this up when it opened yesterday at 42.5 and still feel pretty good about it at the current price. Addison's career is off to a solid start, as he's gone over this total with ease in his first 2 games. The former USC star has also grabbed a couple of touchdowns already.
With a game total sitting at 54 points, oddsmakers are expecting lots of offensive firepower and a ton of yards. That's really the only time I enjoy playing Overs. The game being in Minnesota's indoor stadium also should help both offenses.
Addison's matchup should also be pretty favorable in this one. The Chargers pass defense has been abysmal to start the 2023 campaign. LAC ranks dead last in both yards per pass allowed (9.7!) and passing yards per game allowed (333). Let's play the Over!
Justin Jefferson OVER 100.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Yes, I know betting two wideouts from the same team to go Over is usually frowned upon. However, JJ is on one of those streaks where the oddsmakers simply can't set his number high enough. The former LSU standout has already racked up 20 receptions for 309 receiving yards this season.
We've already mentioned how bad the Chargers pass defense is. Even if they try to double-team Jefferson (which I'm sure they will), Kevin O'Connell will still find creative ways to get him the ball. It also doesn't hurt that Captain Kirk Cousins has been in great form, as he's amassed 708 passing yards and 6 touchdowns through just 2 games.
On the stat side, Jefferson's median last season was 115 receiving yards. He's also gone over this yardage number in 12 of his last 19 games. Again, let's play the Over and pray for fireworks!
